Singapore’s tourist arrivals expected to hit 4m to 6m in 2022

INTERNATIONAL visitor arrivals to Singapore are expected to reach 4 million to 6 million for the full year as travel recovers amid eased Covid-19 curbs, said the Singapore Tourism Board (STB) on Thursday (Jul 14).

For the first half of the year, visitor numbers hit 1.5 million, more than 12 times the year-ago figure of 119,000. Total tourism receipts in the first quarter came in at an estimated S$1.3 billion, up 213 per cent from the same period last year.

While the latest numbers remain a fraction of pre-pandemic figures, STB expects that tourism will recover to pre-Covid levels “by the mid-2020s”.

The latest forecast means that Singapore’s tourism performance in 2022 will better that of 2020 – the first year of the pandemic – when full-year visitor arrivals were 2.74 million, down 85.7 per cent from 2019.

Alan Cheong, head of research at Savills Singapore, said that STB’s mid-2020s recovery projection is also his baseline, considering that the improving tourism numbers in recent months are still a far cry from pre-Covid numbers.

“It’s a bridge too far for tourism to recover by next year, or even the end of next year,” he said.

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Wong Xian Yang, head of research at Cushman & Wakefield, noted that the target aligns with the International Air Transport Association’s forecast for passenger levels in the Asia-Pacific region to recover in 2025.

“Given that regional borders in some countries in the Asia-Pacific have not yet fully reopened, the recovery for tourism will be a prolonged one,” he said.

RHB analyst Vijay Natarajan said that he agreed that the mid-2020s target was reasonable, but that it might be “on the conservative side”.

“The only market that has been missing is Greater China (which prior to Covid accounted for about 24 per cent of total arrivals), and we believe there’s a possibility of China opening up in the later half of next year or by 2024, which should result in tourist numbers reaching pre-Covid levels,” he said.

Singapore took a major step forward on Apr 1, reopening its border with the launch of its Vaccinated Travel Framework. In the first half of the year, Indonesia accounted for the most international visitors, with about 281,550, followed by India, Malaysia, Australia and the Philippines. Together, the five countries accounted for 56 per cent of tourist arrivals.

Indonesia, India and Malaysia also recorded the largest absolute year-on-year growth in visitors, with numbers growing by about 286,000, 204,000 and 132,000 respectively.

The average length of stay for visitors more than doubled in H1 2022 to 7.1 days, up from 3.4 days in pre-pandemic 2019.

Excluding sightseeing, entertainment and gaming data, Indonesia, India and China were the top three sources of tourism receipts in Q1 2022, contributing 32 per cent.

Among the top 10 sources of tourism receipts, Indonesia and India registered the highest year-on-year absolute growth of S$95 million or 187 per cent, and S$97 million or 376 per cent respectively.

All major components of tourism receipts recorded growth on the year, with shopping and accommodation leading with 373 per cent and 344 per cent respectively.

“Tourism flows will face some headwinds for the rest of the year because of the volatile global political and economic environment, as well as the evolving health situation,” said STB. However, it added that it remained “cautiously optimistic” and anticipates a strong performance from key source markets this year, given a strong pipeline of events and new and rejuvenated offerings.

Keith Tan, chief executive of STB, said: “The encouraging growth in visitor arrivals and tourism receipts signals strong pent-up demand, and underscore Singapore’s continued appeal as a vibrant and attractive destination for leisure and business travellers.”