Singapore's trade crosses S$1 trillion for first time in 4 years

Singapore

And both the trade and the non-oil domestic export (NODX) growth are tipped to ease further to zero to 2 per cent in 2019, according to Enterprise Singapore.

Total trade jumped 9.2 per cent from a year ago to S$1.1 trillion, after an 11.1 per cent increase in 2017, according to figures released by the trade promotion agency on Friday. The last time Singapore's trade crossed S$1 trillion was in 2014.

Singapore's total trade was S$967 billion in 2017 and S$870 billion in 2016.

Both oil and non-oil trade contributed to total merchandise trade growth in 2018. Oil domestic shipments increased 17.1 per cent, easing from a 33.4 per cent jump in 2017. Non-oil exports rose 6.5 per cent in 2018, comparable to the 6.8 per cent growth in the previous year.

The NODX growth slowed from 8.8 per cent in 2017 to 4.2 per cent last year. In the final quarter of 2018, the NODX dipped 1.1 per cent following a 8 per cent growth in the third quarter.

For the full year, the electronic NODX fell 5.5 per cent, against an 8 per cent rise in 2017. The decline was outweighed by a bigger increase in the non-electronic NODX, which grew 8.2 per cent - though this was a moderation from the 9.2 per cent jump in 2017.

In its report card on Singapore's latest annual trade performance, Enterprise Singapore also disclosed that it is maintaining its earlier forecast of zero to 2 per cent growth for total trade and non-oil domestic growth this year.

"Overall, total trade and NODX growth are expected to moderate in 2019, easing from 2018's and 2017's rapid pace," the trade promotion agency said. "Singapore's key trade partners such as China, Asean-5, the Eurozone, the US and NIEs are expected to grow, though the pace is likely to moderate from the performance in 2018 and 2017."

While Enterprise Singapore indicated that NODX shipments "to the top 10 major markets as a whole grew" last year, exports to China, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia and Thailand fell.

NODX flows to South Korea took the biggest fall, down 17.6 per cent. Shipments to China dropped 8.8 per cent.

NODX growth in 2018 was led by exports to the US (+38.2 per cent), the EU (+15.7 per cent), Japan (+11.4 per cent) and Indonesia (+11.3 per cent).

In its latest World Economic Outlook report in January, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that the global economy would grow 3.5 per cent in 2019, slowing from 3.7 per cent in 2018.

The US's economic growth was tipped to ease from 2.9 to 2.5 per cent, while growth in the Euro area was seen to moderate from 1.8 to 1.6 per cent. China's economic growth was expected to slow from 6.6 per cent in 2018 to 6.2 per cent in 2019.

A main culprit for the weaker growth forecasts was the "negative effects of tariff increases enacted in the US and China", according to the IMF.

Enterprise Singapore added that waning growth momentum and tightening financial conditions might also weigh down global growth and trade flows.

Singapore's total services trade rose 2.3 per cent to S$500.4 million in 2018, after expanding 11.7 per cent in 2017. Services exports and imports increased 4.1 and 0.6 per cent respectively. Services shipments rose 2.8 per cent in the fourth quarter last year, against a 4.4 per cent jump in Q3.

"The growth in services exports can be attributed to the increase in receipts from other business services (+5.5 per cent), transport services (+2.4 per cent) and financial services (+3.8 per cent)," said Enterprise Singapore.