Skilled workers can relocate again as borders reopen, but low risk of mass ‘brain drain’ from Singapore: analysts

THE global war for talent is back on, as international mobility improves with the reopening of borders – and Singapore risks losing high-skilled professionals to greener pastures abroad.

Local workers’ interest in relocating is “maybe even slightly higher than pre-pandemic”, Jaya Dass, managing director at recruitment firm Randstad, told The Business Times (BT), adding that “I think this will increase even more next year” when the pandemic situation stabilises further.

Said labour economist Walter Theseira, an associate professor at the Singapore University of Social Sciences: “We can, and also should, worry about too little outward migration – it would mean we’re becoming more and more insular, which is not good for our competitiveness.”

That’s as overseas stints still confer prestige on a résumé, with skilled Singaporean workers also in demand among employers globally, according to human resources consultants.

“Fresh graduates and young talent who are interested in gaining exposure in specific areas like banking and finance may see this as a good opportunity to move to a global financial centre,” Rahul Chawla, head of human capital solutions for South-east Asia at consulting firm Aon, remarked of the United Kingdom’s new High Potential Individual visa, which opened for applications this week.

Graduates of Nanyang Technological University and the National University of Singapore are eligible for the UK visa, alongside alumni of other internationally ranked institutions.

Recently, the UK reported a record 1.3 million job vacancies for the 3 months to end-April 2022 - up by 2.7 per cent on the quarter before, and led by the arts, education and recreation industry, and construction sector. Finance and insurance vacancies were up by 2.2 per cent.

Meanwhile, jobs on the shortage occupations list for UK skilled worker visas include cybersecurity specialists and software development professionals. Other work schemes open to Singaporeans include the United States’ H-1B1 visa category, which sets aside an annual quota of 5,400 places for Singapore citizens.

Meanwhile, Helmi Yusoff, rewards leader for Asean emerging markets at Mercer, noted that the risk of losing high-skilled local workers to emigration “has always been present, especially pre-pandemic”.

He said: “Based on our experience, brain drain has been more prevalent among middle and senior management levels who are seizing opportunities for global exposure and experience. This is further exacerbated by organisations who are mandating internal talent movement to other markets.” Indeed, Singaporean employees tend to be more willing than their foreign counterparts to pursue career opportunities abroad, Helmi added.

Before travel restrictions eased this year, some 55 per cent of Singapore employees already reported that they would consider a job overseas, according to a poll by human resources software provider Employment Hero in late 2021. In contrast, 50 per cent of UK workers polled, 48 per cent of New Zealand workers, and 42 per cent of Australians were keen to do so. All the same, observers believe that a large-scale exodus of local talent is unlikely, as rising global uncertainty may limit the relocation trend to Singaporeans with a higher risk appetite.

Citing expectations of a recession in the UK in 2023, Selena Ling, chief economist at OCBC, noted that economic prospects overseas may have become less attractive. “With domestic wages also playing catch-up to the elevated inflation here, there is a need to see if like-for-like financial comparisons make sense,” she said.

Chawla told BT: “Wages for entry-level talent have been on an upward trend over the last few years as a result of demand from local and international firms even before inflationary pressures set in. Thus, Singapore’s value proposition remains compelling and globally competitive.” He also said that the outflow of talent from Singapore may still be constrained by macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility, as workers who prioritise career stability and job security stay put: “In volatile conditions, people would tend to stick closer to their home base.”

Theseira noted that economic crises in Singapore “have not resulted in significant resident unemployment, and for obvious reasons, the most skilled workers tend to be able to keep their positions during a crisis”, adding: “Of course, it is a different matter for non-resident workers… but we have generally been able to attract them back when economic conditions improve.”

In fact, Nick Chia, a consultant at executive search firm Russell Reynolds Associates, told BT that “we are seeing a global inflow of interest” on a net basis. And the interest hails from all over the world – including expatriates who left during the pandemic and now want to return. Across the workforce, Chia said that “I expect the number of departures to be minimal, and even those who leave are likely to return to Singapore after a few years abroad”, while Mercer’s Helmi noted that these local returnees will be “bringing with them new skills and experience”.

Watchers also stressed Singapore remains an attractive global hub and a gateway to Asia. Said Dass: “Markets like Shanghai and Hong Kong, which pose good competition, are not exactly attractive politically or geographically at the moment, for multiple reasons – Covid included. So I think, within the Asia-Pacific, Singapore still holds a superior position.”

But relocation-related risks still remain in specific aspects of the Singapore labour market. For example, Dass suggested that employers could have trouble replacing early-career local workers with expatriates, as work visas tend to be earmarked for senior staff on the higher end of the spectrum.

Separately, Chia warned that a “faster-than-usual” rise in compensation to win talent could make the cost of doing business in Singapore more prohibitive, as companies look to investments in regional destinations such as Ho Chi Minh City and Kuala Lumpur.