Trump victory could cause global recession: Citigroup
[WASHINGTON] If New York developer Donald Trump wins the White House in November, the global economy could slip into recession, according to a forecast from Citigroup Thursday.
In a research note a team led by the US bank's chief economist Willem Buiter said the election was a major source of uncertainty in the global economy.
"Our base case is for a (Hillary) Clinton victory and mostly continuity in policies," the note said, adding that a Clinton administration could result in a major fiscal expansion.
A victory by Republican candidate Mr Trump could foretell of darker times, however, they said.
Presuming increases in global uncertainty and tightening of US financial conditions, "a Trump victory could lower global GDP growth by around 0.7-0.8" percentage points, the note said, "pushing GDP growth easily below our benchmark for a global recession."
The note defined recession at world GDP expansion of 2.0 per cent or less, at market exchange rates.
Mr Trump, who has lent his name to a broad array of commercial ventures with of varying degrees of success, has campaigned on his business acumen as antidote to the perceived failures of conventional wisdom in Washington.
The New York Times on Thursday put the odds of a Trump victory over democratic rival Mrs Clinton at 12 per cent.
The Trump campaign could not be reached immediately for comment on the Citigroup report.
AFP
BT is now on Telegram!
For daily updates on weekdays and specially selected content for the weekend. Subscribe to t.me/BizTimes
International
India’s economic activity continues to expand
Thailand’s 500 billion baht stimulus project gets Cabinet approval
China finance ministry echoes Xi’s call for bond trading at PBOC
Bank of Japan to hold rates with focus on hawkish signals to buoy yen
Blackstone-owned Crown Resorts can keep Sydney casino licence, regulator says
Silent and brooding, Trump endures courtroom ordeal