US personal income up by more than forecast

[NEW YORK] Americans' incomes increased in September by more than expected, boosted by employment gains and helping to propel consumer spending at the end of the third quarter.

Personal incomes rose 0.9 per cent from the prior month following a 2.5 per cent decline in August, a Commerce Department report showed Friday. That compared with estimates for a 0.4 per cent gain. Household outlays advanced 1.4 per cent, also exceeding forecasts.

The personal saving rate fell for a fifth month but remained elevated at 14.3 per cent. In February, when the unemployment rate was at a 50-year low, the savings rate was 8.3 per cent.

Hundreds of thousands more Americans headed back to work in September as the labour market continued to slowly recover, putting more cash in Americans' wallets. Though the extended stalemate between lawmakers on additional stimulus relief could restrain growth in incomes, further job gains and a still-elevated savings rate will continue to support consumer spending.

The supplemental jobless payments President Donald Trump authorised in early August also lent an extra boost to incomes, the report showed. "Other" transfer receipts totaled an annualised US$963.9 billion during the month, up from about US$716 billion.

Gross domestic product rose by a record in the third quarter, and the better-than-expected September spending figures suggest the economy headed into the final three months of the year with solid positive momentum.

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The income and spending report showed wages and salaries rose 0.8 per cent in September. Unemployment insurance payments made up 1.8 per cent of annualised income in September, compared to 7 per cent three months earlier.

While the chances of a stimulus package by Election Day on Tuesday have evaporated, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Thursday it's still possible to get a deal on fiscal stimulus with the Trump administration before the start of the new congressional and White House terms in January.

Adjusted for inflation, consumer spending increased 1.2 per cent in September after rising 0.7 per cent in August. Real outlays for durable goods, such as motor vehicles, rose 2.9 per cent in September from a month earlier, while services spending climbed 0.8 per cent.

The broader personal consumption expenditures price gauge, which the Federal Reserve officially targets, rose 0.2 per cent from the prior month and was up 1.4 per cent from a year earlier. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, increased 1.5 per cent in September from a year earlier, less than projected. Policy makers view the core gauge as a better indicator of underlying price trends.

The central bank doesn't anticipate inflation will pose a threat to the economy any time soon, and policy makers have signaled they plan to hold rates near zero through 2023.

BLOOMBERG