Who will be Singapore's next Minister for Finance?

Singapore

MUCH of the scrutiny is on Singapore's next prime minister, but for the business community, the more immediate question is over the next finance minister.

This comes a day after Deputy Prime Minister (DPM) Heng Swee Keat's announcement that he is taking himself out of the running as Singapore's next prime minister and leader of the fourth-generation (4G) ministers while also relinquishing his finance portfolio at the upcoming cabinet reshuffle.

Four potential names have emerged as most likely to take over as finance minister in the reshuffle set to take place in two weeks, but watchers told The Business Times that "counter-intuitive" choices should not be discounted.

While observers were mostly in agreement about the potential candidates, they were divided on who the most likely candidate could be.

Two obvious candidates for the role are the current Second Ministers for Finance, Lawrence Wong and Indranee Rajah. DBS economist Irvin Seah believes that promoting someone from within the ministry would help ensure the continuity of Singapore's fiscal policies.

"Without good, prudent, rigorous fiscal policy, Singapore wouldn't be where we are today. So this person has to have a very strong foundation grounding pertaining to economic issues," he said, adding that the finance minister controls Singapore's financial resources. "Based on experience and merit, Mr Wong's experience in economic issues probably will be part of the consideration."

He noted that Mr Wong is an economist by training and had begun his public service career in the Ministry of Trade and Industry, while Ms Indranee was a lawyer before entering politics.

Mr Wong has also received wide recognition for his effort as co-chair of Singapore's Covid-19 task force, a role that has helped to showcase his leadership and decisiveness in steering the country through the pandemic.

However, political watcher Eugene Tan, a law don at the Singapore Management University (SMU), believes shifting Mr Wong at this juncture - less than nine months after he assumed his current portfolio as Education Minister - would be "too drastic a change", adding: "I don't think it's something that the situation calls for."

Kurt Wee, president of the Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (ASME), believes the choice of candidate could depend on whether the appointment is based on "portfolio rotation" or "portfolio progression". In the latter, he said, possible candidates could be Mr Wong and Transport Minister Ong Ye Kung, who also sits on the board of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).

"If you look at purely progressing a minister potentially into finance, purely so that they have that rotational experience - which is really what the system has been about - then I think it has to be Mr Wong or Mr Ong," he said, adding that both ministers already have the related experience to succeed Mr Heng.

In the case of a "portfolio rotation", however, Mr Wee believes Trade and Industry Minister Chan Chun Sing - previously tipped to be Mr Heng's future deputy - could be a probable choice. "He's probably the 4G minister with the heaviest volume of portfolios," said Mr Wee.

Agreeing, SMU's Assoc Prof Tan said the finance portfolio would complement Mr Chan's diverse experience since he entered politics: "Come May 1, he would have spent three years at the Ministry of Trade and Industry, and that's about the time for him to be moved to another portfolio."

In recent decades, the question of who will become finance minister has taken on a nuanced tone, as the appointment has come to be viewed as a natural progression towards premiership.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong served as Minister for Finance in 2001 before he took on the top job in 2004, while Mr Heng was appointed three years before he was identified as PM-designate.

However, observers are not ruling out the possibility that the next finance minister may not become Singapore's next prime minister this time. One reason is that the 4G team has yet to identify a leader among themselves, and Mr Wong, during a press conference on Thursday, had said they would need time to do so.

To quell speculation in the interim, Assoc Prof Tan believes the government may pick a candidate who may not be in the running for the top job but has a proven track record. "We shouldn't be surprised if there's a counter-intuitive choice," he said, adding that this could be the government's signal that there is, at present, no one who has an edge with regard to becoming

Mr Lee's successor.

As such, he believes Health Minister Gan Kim Yong, who has been co-leading Singapore's fight against Covid-19, could be a prime candidate. "He has been doing a sterling job in the Ministry of Health, which in a way explains why he has been there for close to 10 years . . . but I think it's important for a 4G leader to helm the Health Ministry," said Assoc Prof Tan.

He said another reason the finance portfolio may not necessarily be viewed as a "baptism of fire" is that there may no longer be "heavyweight" or "lightweight" ministries due to the increasing complexity of today's issues and the disruption from Covid-19.

ASME's Mr Wee agreed, saying that the chosen person would be a leader among leaders. "The 4G ministers have ushered us through the pandemic very well - they're battle-proven and they've proven themselves (by leading) Singapore through one of the worst global crises."

As to what businesses hope to see in a finance minister, Mr Wee said they would like someone who is prepared to make bold calls on strategic shifts that can help businesses make the leap.

"Some of it would have to be the drive for continued transformation, some of it could be to push our businesses towards longer-term sustainable growing companies, and some aspects of it could also be to bridge businesses into the global marketplace," he said. "Besides that, businesses would want a finance minister that is also sensitive to the costs of doing business."

DPM Heng was a highly respected finance minister who took the effort to hear the views of the business community, and had delivered budgets during the most critical time for the economy through the pandemic, noted observers, and business leaders would be looking for another experienced pair of hands at the wheel of the key ministry.