Europe's political risks, post-Brexit
While similar exit referendums are not likely to be held in Europe, anti-EU parties are gaining power in the continent
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FOLLOWING the surprising Leave outcome in the UK's referendum on European Union (EU) membership on June 23, we regard it as likely that the UK will exit the EU over the next two-plus years, having invoked Article 50 of the EU Treaty to begin withdrawal negotiations in late 2016 or early 2017.
An obvious question is which country may be the next source of major political risk (including referendum risk) in Europe and more broadly, whether the Brexit outcome is a harbinger of wider systemic political risk that ultimately threatens EU cohesion.
We conclude that further In/Out referendums on EU or eurozone membership are unlikely in any EU country in the near-term, at least for the next year or so.
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