Flash estimates: just a numbers game?
Swings between projected and actual figures have led some to question if advance sequential growth numbers are still relevant
WHEN the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) first introduced quarter-on-quarter advance GDP estimates in Q2 2000, it aimed to provide more timely economic data to the public and business community.
By all measures, these flash estimates have been a boon for investors and businesses alike, giving an early and largely accurate indication of sequential GDP growth each quarter - until last year.
In 2013, three out of four advance GDP estimates (Q1, Q3, and Q4) were off the mark in directional terms - the economy was projected to contract, when it actually expanded quarter-on-quarter.
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