Rising risk of global recession

IN OUR view, global growth is at a highly precarious point, after two to three years of relative calm.

The long-standing fragilities in the world economy relate to the structural and cyclical slowdowns in China and its unsustainable exchange rate regime, the excessive level of debt across many countries and sectors and ongoing regional and geopolitical uncertainty.

In addition, there are now concerns about a cyclical slowdown in the advanced economies. This includes a large increase in the uncertainty about the outlook in the US, Euro Area, Japan and UK.