A year to widen your investment horizons
2015 IS shaping up to be quite a volatile year for financial markets. Oil prices ploughed new lows after losing more than half of their value since June 2014; multi-year-low commodity prices, besides excess productive capacity and sluggish demand, have driven consumer inflation below 0 per cent in Europe. Meanwhile, political uncertainty has increased in Europe with a far-left party assuming power in Greece with a mandate to renegotiate the country's debt.
Despite all this uncertainty, we remain relatively constructive on global economic growth and asset prices. The US economy is expected to accelerate in 2015 as the unusually harsh winter seen in Q1 2014 is unlikely to be repeated, while a strong job market fuels a consumer demand-driven expansion.
Europe and Japan are also likely to post slightly stronger growth on the back of record low borrowing costs and weaker currencies. The main growth concern is in China, which we expect to decelerate somewhat. However, this means that the authorities in Beijing are focused on much-needed reforms to turn the world's second-largest economy from an export and investment-driven engine to one powered by domestic consumption. And that naturally represents a trade-off between short-term and long-term growth.
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