Allies prepare for US U-turn as Biden shifts priorities

New York

JOE Biden's election win is being greeted with a sigh of relief by many US allies, whose confidence in Washington was shaken over the four years of President Donald Trump's combative "America First" approach to the world.

The Biden administration is expected to reverse course quickly on parts of Mr Trump's foreign policy agenda by rejoining the Paris climate change agreement, working more closely with other countries to combat Covid-19 and trying to breathe new life into the Iran nuclear accord. Nato allies like Germany and France won't be berated so publicly, and leaders of adversaries like Russia and North Korea won't be showered in praise.

Yet diplomats warn that Mr Biden, constrained by probable continued Republican control of the Senate, can't undo all that's changed and won't be able to sweep away concerns over America's long-term reliability in foreign affairs.

"The world will go into whiplash now," said Stewart Patrick, senior fellow on global governance and multilateralism at the Council on Foreign Relations. "He will be greeted with a huge sigh of relief, but there's no going back to the way things were in a sense that there will be some recognition that Trumpism is not dead."

Although differences with Europe on crucial topics such as China and trade will remain, Mr Biden and his team will usher in a more congenial way of operating than an administration under Mr Trump that other leaders found erratic and sometimes offensive.

US allies have expressed optimism that a Biden administration could mobilise support for an ambitious global climate agenda. Many leaders in their initial congratulatory messages singled out the environment as a key priority, alongside greater cooperation to fight the Covid-19 pandemic.

Mr Biden is also likely to reverse Mr Trump's decision to leave the World Health Organization.

European officials, who have sought to keep the Iran nuclear deal alive despite Mr Trump's effort to dismantle the accord after quitting it in 2018, say they will work with the Biden administration to revive the agreement. They face roadblocks thrown up late in the Trump administration through an array of revived sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

Areas of conflict with other countries will persist, reflecting increasingly divergent US interests in some key areas.

"Nothing will be easy," Germany's Foreign Minister Heiko Maas told German newspaper Bild. "There are also many issues where I don't think anything is going to change there, for example the 2 per cent goal," Mr Maas said, referring to the target for defence spending as a proportion of GDP for Nato members, on which many states are still falling short despite Mr Trump's criticisms.

Middle East allies may look at Mr Biden's victory with some ambivalence. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and Israel benefited from Mr Trump's penchant to look the other way on their domestic human rights issues. But Mr Biden is unlikely to reverse the wave of normalisation agreements between Israel and some Arab nations that Mr Trump achieved in recent months.

A key question will be how Mr Biden deals with China after ties grew increasingly acrimonious towards the end of Mr Trump's presidency. Both Mr Biden and Mr Trump vowed to be tough on Beijing, but Mr Biden has pledged to work with allies to force China to "play by the rules".

And although Europe may be supportive of the US stance on China, economically it could be less aligned on Beijing's growing military assertiveness in Asia, said Rosa Balfour, director of Carnegie Europe.

Some leaders have already pointed out that Mr Biden is likely to face big challenges at home, where voter polarisation has increased while issues around race, police brutality and inequality continue to surface.

"I expect that in the next year the US will have to concentrate on the country's greatest challenge, namely its internal division," Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg said on Sunday. BLOOMBERG