Asean is fast positioning itself as a key actor in the global balance of power
The road ahead is not without challenges as political divisions, economic inequality and security concerns will test Asean’s unity and resilience
IN RECENT years, global attention has increasingly shifted towards South-east Asia, with many analysts acknowledging the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) as a rising force on the global stage.
Often described as an underdog in geopolitics and economics, Asean’s emergence may seem understated, but its influence is growing rapidly. This bloc of 10 member states – Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam – has proven itself to be a critical player in shaping regional stability, economic growth and diplomatic dialogue.
With a combined population of over 680 million and a collective gross domestic product exceeding US$3 trillion, Asean is positioning itself as a key actor in the global balance of power.
Economic growth and potential
One of the defining features of Asean’s emergence as a global player is its robust economic growth. The region has seen consistent GDP growth rates of around 5 per cent annually over the past two decades, outpacing many other parts of the world.
Asean’s diverse economies, ranging from the highly developed financial hub of Singapore to the rapidly industrialising Vietnam and Indonesia, offer a mix of opportunities for investors and businesses alike.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) into the region has surged, with Asean attracting more than US$174 billion in 2022 alone.
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Much of this growth is linked to Asean’s strategic location along vital global trade routes, as well as the region’s relatively low labour costs and improving infrastructure. Its economic policies, particularly efforts to reduce tariffs and streamline regulatory frameworks, have made it a magnet for businesses seeking to tap a young and growing consumer base.
Furthermore, Asean’s youthful and growing population presents a significant market opportunity.
With a median age of just 29.8 years, Asean’s demographic advantage contrasts sharply with the ageing populations of developed economies such as Japan and much of Europe. This young population fuels domestic demand for consumer goods, technology, and services, positioning Asean as an increasingly important consumption hub.
Strategic role in global supply chains
The pathway for Asean to become an economic powerhouse is closely linked to its role in global supply chains. As companies seek to diversify their production bases, the region has emerged as an alternative hub for manufacturing and assembly, particularly in industries such as electronics, textiles, and automotive.
The trend has accelerated with the “China-plus-one” strategy, where multinational firms aim to reduce their over-reliance on China by expanding production to nearby countries.
Vietnam, for example, has become a major centre for electronics manufacturing, attracting investment from global giants such as Samsung and Apple. Indonesia and Malaysia, with their large domestic markets and resource-rich economies, have also seen a surge in manufacturing investments.
Asean’s favourable demographics, competitive labour costs, and improving infrastructure have made it an ideal location for companies looking to ensure resilience and flexibility in their global supply chains.
In addition to manufacturing, Asean’s strategic location along vital maritime routes, including the Straits of Malacca, has established it as a critical hub for global trade.
Its connectivity between East Asia, South Asia, and beyond enhances its role as a vital conduit for goods and services. Major ports in Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand continue to expand their capacities to serve as key links in the global logistics network.
Digital transformation and technological advancements
One of Asean’s most promising growth drivers is its commitment to digital transformation.
The region’s digital economy is expected to exceed US$300 billion by 2025, driven by increased Internet penetration, a growing middle class, and a young, tech-savvy population. E-commerce, fintech and digital services are booming across Asean, with platforms such as Grab, Gojek and Shopee leading the way in transforming how people shop, pay, and commute.
Governments across the region are investing heavily in digital infrastructure, such as 5G networks and smart cities, to support this growth. These investments are aimed at ensuring that Asean remains competitive in the global digital economy and can attract more investment from technology companies.
The digital transformation also extends to industries such as manufacturing, logistics, and finance.
The adoption of technologies such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, and the Internet of Things is helping Asean companies streamline their operations and integrate more efficiently into global supply chains. This ongoing digital shift will likely propel Asean to the forefront of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, further solidifying its role as a global economic powerhouse.
Rich opportunity set for active investors
Asean markets vary greatly in size, growth prospects and industries. Thailand and Malaysia have ageing populations, while the Philippines and Indonesia have younger demographics.
This diversity means different services are needed in each country. In the Philippines and Indonesia, trade modernisation is key, whereas Thailand focuses on services for an ageing population. Younger, lower GDP markets will see some premiumisation, where brand power and local competition are crucial.
The question for active investors is how to best capture this diversity and structural tailwinds via the equity markets.
Whereas the populations are large, the stock markets are relatively small both in terms of the number of listed companies and their liquidity. That said, the markets are rich in opportunities for stock pickers as there is a high dispersion of returns across and within countries. It pays to be selective.
Typically, our favoured way of investing in these markets is via the banks which provide direct exposure to the economic and demographic trends outlined above. In contrast to many of their global peers, Asean banks, most notably in Indonesia and Philippines, are high return on equity, high growth companies.
We also find opportunities in some of the more established, lower growth sectors such as telecoms and property, where a benign competitive landscape allied to a focus on free cash flow rather than capex has seen profitability inflect. In more mature markets such as Thailand, we see opportunities via industries such as healthcare and logistics which are well placed to capture medical tourism and FDI trends respectively.
At an aggregate level we have a positive view on the region. Valuations are attractive relative to history and the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts give central banks across the region the flexibility to cut rates to underpin economic growth rather than keep rates high to defend their currencies.
Promising future
Asean’s rise as an “emerging force” on the global stage is no longer a matter of speculation; it is a reality. With its economic dynamism, strategic location, and diplomatic agility, Asean has transformed itself from a regional bloc focused on peace and stability into a global player with growing influence.
However, the road ahead is not without challenges. Political divisions, economic inequality and regional security concerns will test Asean’s unity and resilience. Yet, if the bloc continues to navigate these challenges as skilfully as it has in the past, it stands poised to be a central actor in shaping the future of global geopolitics and economics.
Emerging markets are less established than developed markets and therefore involve higher risks.
The writer is portfolio manager in the equity division and lead portfolio manager for the Asia ex-Japan equity strategy at T Rowe Price.
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