Demographic dilemma: South-east Asia’s race to combat slowing birth rates

THE spotlight is shining on South-east Asia’s declining birth rates as concerns mount over their socio-economic impact.

A myriad of factors has led to falling total fertility rates, the average number of births per woman. In countries such as the Philippines, the number of new births seems closely linked to marriage rates. In Singapore, financial pressures of raising children is a key deterrent, pushing the city-state’s fertility rate to the lowest in the region at 0.97 in 2023.

Additionally, as living conditions improve and child mortality rates drop, there is less pressure or necessity for families to have more children, said the Asian Development Bank’s senior economist Aiko Kikkawa.

Rising female participation in the workforce is another reason. “The increased economic development necessitates greater female participation in the workforce to bolster the economy, leading to a decline in the fertility rate,” said Melinda Martinus, lead researcher of Asean studies centre at Iseas - Yusof Ishak Institute.

But she also pointed out that despite increased female workforce participation, most economies in South-east Asia, excluding Singapore and Brunei, have yet to hit the vaunted high-income status. This may be due to women not being employed in high-productivity or high-paying roles, which limits overall economic output; a persistent gender pay gap may be the other factor.

Declining new births risk curtailing the country’s growth potential. For example, Malaysia’s low fertility rate of 1.6, coupled with its ageing population, are putting a toll on the economy.

Still, experts say fertility rates aside, a more crucial indicator is the composition of the population as the latter, according to Kikkawa, determines a country’s productivity levels.

“On the policy side, a key focus for the government would be to enhance the productivity of all age groups,” she said, citing Japan’s increasing workforce participation among women and seniors despite a declining population as a viable policy path.

The demographic dilemma has pushed governments in the region to roll out policies to encourage more births, including reducing cost woes and upping the ante on fertility treatments. Several countries are also easing immigration policies to plug the slowing population growth. Others are undoing decades-long policies that were aimed at curbing population growth.

The Business Times highlights how the dilemma is unfolding in these countries and policymakers’ efforts to tackle this conundrum.

The Philippines: ‘pandemic interruptus’

Following one of the world’s longest Covid-19 lockdowns in the Philippines, data from the country’s statistics agency showed that the fertility rate plunged to 1.9 in 2022 from 2.8 two years earlier.

A 2020 survey by the Philippine-based Social Weather Stations revealed that during the pandemic, a majority of women avoided getting pregnant amid concerns over rising costs and infections in hospitals, and a lack of maternity services.

Another factor behind the dwindling births could be the sharp decline during the pandemic in the number of registered marriages, which fell by more than 40 per cent in 2020 from a year ago.

Researchers are uncertain if the lower fertility rate is just a temporary pandemic effect. However, even with marriage rates returning to pre-pandemic levels, based on the latest data, women are opting to have children later in life, which could result in fewer babies over their lifetimes.

The statistics agency noted the highest fertility rates in the 25 to 29 age group, while rates for women aged 20 to 24 fell from 163 to 84 births per 1,000 women between 2008 and 2022. Fertility has generally declined across all age groups since 2008.

Against such a backdrop, it would be interesting to see if the government revises its population policy, which has so far focused on reducing family sizes. It may not be easy to change mindsets as the government-led family planning programme to curb population growth has been in place since 1969.

Indonesia: upside’s downside

Fertility rates in Indonesia – the world’s fourth most populous country with more than 275 million people – have starkly dropped over the past decades, a testament to policies aimed at controlling population growth and improving fertility welfare since the 1970s.

The total fertility rate sank to 2.14 in 2022 versus 5.6 in 1971, according to the country’s population and family planning agency.

Generation Z (or Gen-Z born between 1997 and 2012) make up nearly 30 per cent of the demographic.

Its “demographic bonus” is worth cheering – nearly 70 per cent of the population is of working age (between 15 and 64), surpassing the number of children and elderly.

But rising youth unemployment, given the mismatch of job vacancies with skill sets, could mar that plus point. Indonesia’s youth jobless rate in 2022 stood at 13 per cent, way higher than many regional peers, namely the Philippines (6.3 per cent), Vietnam (7.4 per cent) and Thailand (4.5 per cent), according to the World Bank.

Vietnam: different strokes for different areas

Thanks to Vietnam’s population control and family planning efforts, it has maintained relatively stable birth rates in the past two decades. The country’s official total fertility rate stood at 1.95 per woman in 2023, just marginally lower than 2.01 in 2022.

But it faces a conundrum – a big disparity in birth rates based on areas. Ho Chi Minh City and the Mekong Delta, located in the eastern parts of southern Vietnam, have the lowest birth rate at 1.5 children per woman. In these areas, the average age for first marriage rose to 29.8 in 2022 from 27.5 in 2019, 2.9 years above the national average.

The government introduced policies in 2020 to encourage single individuals to marry and have their first children before turning 30. In addition, policymakers are also drafting a law to provide financial help to women who have a second child in areas with low birth rates.

Under the proposed legislation, areas with low fertility rates will be required to review and abolish policies that encourage low birth rates. Instead, they need to create favourable conditions for couples to have two children. These include incentives such as lower or waived tuition fees for elementary schoolgoers.

Thailand: thinking ‘out of the crib’

The kingdom reported fewer than half a million new births in 2022, according to the public health ministry, the fewest in 70 years and even lower than the nation’s death rate.

The country’s fertility rate stood at 1.08 in 2022, according to some reports.

Should the trend persist, experts have sounded the alarm that by 2083, Thailand’s population could halve to 33 million with a majority being senior citizens.

The kingdom has a history of positive net migration as people move across its border from neighbouring countries, particularly from Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos. But it’s no match for the 400,000 people per annum that is said to be needed for the country to avoid population decline from 2030.

Unlike Singapore, which consistently grants over 20,000 new citizenships a year to counter the declining population, Thailand falls significantly short in offering permanent residence or a viable path to citizenship.

Last December, policymakers rolled out a “Give Birth, Great World” campaign, an urgent call to boost slipping birth rates.

There are also plans to set up 119 fertility centres nationwide and offer infertility treatment in state hospitals.

The birth agenda could take a fresh dimension with the government mulling amending laws to empower single parents and the LGBTQ community to have children.

Additional reporting by Tan Ai Leng, Jamille Tran and Elisa Valenta