Even from jail, Najib will remain a kingmaker in Malaysia

NAJIB Razak may be behind bars, but the former Malaysian prime minister will loom large over the next battle for control in the nation’s parliament. 

He began serving a 12-year prison sentence on Tuesday (Aug 23), after Malaysia’s top court upheld his 2020 conviction for his role in one of the world’s largest financial scandals. While the decision bars the 69-year-old from mounting a political comeback in upcoming elections, he retains widespread popularity and deep influence in the ruling United Malays National Organisation (Umno).

Umno remains committed to holding elections as soon as possible to take advantage of a better-than-expected economy and a fractured opposition camp, a senior ruling party official said on Wednesday. Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob, who has pledged to hold a vote at the “right time”, will have to maintain his alliance with Najib loyalists if he wants to keep his seat, said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, as the party’s internal deliberations are private. 

Such political calculations suggest that Najib, who led the South-east Asian nation from 2009 to 2018, will likely continue to reign as a political kingmaker. The former premier has attempted to recast himself as a man of the people while battling 5 criminal cases related to theft from the state-owned 1MDB investment fund, and he has helped Umno win a string of local elections in the past year. 

“We’ve learned in Malaysian political life that no one is finished,” said Bridget Welsh, honorary research associate with the University of Nottingham Asia Research Institute Malaysia, who has been writing about local politics for over 2 decades. “He will continue to remain prominent, and he still has his supporters.”

A representative for Umno didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

Timing of the election  

How that power struggle plays out ahead of the next elections, which must be held by September 2023, will determine whether Malaysia can regain stability and defend its status as the region’s third-largest economy. The country has had 3 prime ministers since an unlikely alliance between one-time Umno standard-bearer, Mahathir Mohamad, and opposition leader, Anwar Ibrahim, ousted Najib and forced Umno from power for the first time in 6 decades. 

Although a wave of party defections helped Ismail and Umno regain control over parliament in August 2021, his grip on power in the nation of 33 million people remains shaky without fresh elections. Ismail has cultivated a reputation as a defender of the independent judiciary, by allowing proceedings against Najib to continue; he must tread carefully to avoid a repeat of the 2018 loss.

Umno officials have said they want elections to be held in November. 

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“The question now is how the party treats the Najib episode and whether it continues to be disconnected from the aspirations of Malaysians,” said Ibrahim Suffian, programme director and co-founder of Merdeka Center for Opinion Research, which has carried out surveys since 2004. “They need to show that they’ve learned from mistakes of the past and not let the party agenda be bogged down by controversial leaders.”

 There is still a possibility – but a very unlikely one – that Najib could go free and return to the campaign trail in the next election, since he could seek a review of the top court’s decision, or petition for a pardon from King Sultan Abdullah Sultan Ahmad. Mahathir told Bloomberg News earlier this week that he saw a “50-50 chance” that Najib would eventually get a pardon. 

Najib was convicted in July 2020 on charges of abuse of power, money laundering and breach of trust over the transfer of RM42 million (S$13.4 million) from 1MDB unit SRC International to his personal bank account. The former premier has pleaded not guilty to all charges and claimed that he was a “victim of a scam”. 

The SRC sentence, which included a RM210 million fine, was maintained by the Court of Appeal in December, with a judge referring to Najib’s actions as a “national embarrassment”. The Federal Court upheld the earlier judgment on Tuesday.  

Najib returned to High Court on Thursday for a second 1MDB trial, in which he is the sole accused. The former leader, who has 3 more court cases, arrived in a black sports utility vehicle escorted by police outriders. He was in a dark blue suit, state news agency Bernama reported.

Political pressure

While Ismail has so far remained silent on the ruling and court cases, some party officials have offered support for Najib. Umno President Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said: “Umno will stand together with Dato Sri Mohd Najib Tun Abdul Razak to face all the other cases against him and ensure that he gets justice and doesn’t become a victim of political pressure. We need to be calm and determined to pin down all the biases in the system to guarantee justice will be on the agenda.”

Winning a national election won’t be easy, a second senior Umno official said. And forming a minority government would entail settling scores with opposition groups, the official said. 

Still, Umno is confident that it can prevent Najib from becoming the focus of the campaign, the official said. The party is planning to contrast its longevity with the opposition’s dysfunction, including the collapse of Mahathir and Anwar’s coalition in 2020.

Najib’s imprisonment “could hurt Umno in a way with regard to the politics of garnering support from the ground,” said Johan Saravanamuttu, professor emeritus of Universiti Sains Malaysia. “On the other hand, it gives the current prime minister, Ismail Sabri, a stronger hand as he’s not hounded by the court case of these individuals.” BLOOMBERG