How Myanmar’s military hangs on to power despite sanctions
MYANMAR’S military, which seized power in a coup in February 2021, has made repeated promises about a return to civilian rule and limited democracy – so far unkept. The former leader, 77-year-old Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, is expected to spend the rest of her life in jail. The military, known as the Tatmadaw, has used increasingly brutal tactics to subdue its enemies, including the first executions in three decades. By its own admission, nearly half the country is facing instability due to armed conflict. Prospects for economic growth are “severely weakened,” according to the World Bank. The US and its allies this year imposed new sanctions aimed at military officials and “affiliated cronies.” But the junta retains control of vast interests, including lucrative natural gas exports, and has found backers outside the West.
1. What’s happened with Aung San Suu Kyi?
She and Win Myint, who served as president in the last civilian government, were found guilty soon after the coup of inciting dissent against the military and flouting Covid restrictions while campaigning for the November 2020 elections. Since then she’s been convicted in a series of trials on charges including corruptions and violating the colonial-era Official Secrets Act, and sentenced to a total of 33 years in prison. Her legal defence team described all the allegations against her as groundless and politically motivated.
2. Why was there a coup?
Aung San Suu Kyi’s pro-democracy party, the National League for Democracy (NLD) won 83 per cent of the Parliamentary seats at stake in the 2020 vote – an even better performance than its 2015 landslide. The election commission and international observers called the election fair. But the military alleged that there had been voter fraud. On the day of the coup, the military said it was necessary to act before the new Parliament session began later that week. More broadly, the military operates almost as a state within a state in Myanmar, and its allies still control vast swaths of the economy. The scale of Suu Kyi’s victory may have prompted fears among the generals of new efforts to chip away at their privileges, especially after the exceptionally poor electoral performance of a military-backed party.
3. Are new elections planned?
In 2021 the military set a deadline for elections – August 2023 – and said army chief Min Aung Hlaing would head a caretaker government in the meantime. The regime had been expected to hand over power to a transitional government under its control after the expiry of emergency rule at the end of January. Instead it extended the state of emergency for another six months, and a court ruled that the extension was constitutional. As a preliminary step in the electoral process, the military-appointed election body urged political parties to register again under a new law. But complicated new regulations will likely prevent the NLD from participating.
4. What is the fighting in Myanmar about?
Violence flared after the coup as Aung San Suu Kyi’s supporters demanded her release and the restoration of the elected government. Junta forces have killed more than 2,900 people and detained many more, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (Burma), a human rights group. According to the United Nations’ Human Rights Council, ill-treatment and torture have resulted in deaths in detention. Some Aung San Suu Kyi supporters have formed what they call the National Unity government, with armed units known as the People’s Defence Force. They’ve allied with ethnic insurgent groups that have long battled the military over the right to manage their territories and resources. In extending the state of emergency, the junta leader said 40 per cent of townships are facing instability, an admission of the intensity of the conflict. International experts have said the military has effective control over far less territory than it claims to.
5. What’s the fallout been?
The United Nations Security Council passed a resolution in December demanding an end to violence in Myanmar and the release of political prisoners. Its passage was a milestone, but China, Russia and India abstained, limiting the impact. The US, the UK, Canada and Australia reimposed economic sanctions in 2021, just five years after many had been lifted, although it’s unclear how much impact they will have. The US has since extended its sanctions, including in January. But China, Myanmar’s most important trading partner, has rejected calls at the UN for an arms embargo and has affirmed support for the regime. Japan and India worry that tough measures against the junta only risk increasing China’s influence there. The junta has drawn closer to Russia despite the war in Ukraine – Min Aung Hlaing has praised Russian President Vladimir Putin “as a leader of the world.” Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong of Singapore, Myanmar’s biggest foreign investor, has said sanctions would only hurt Myanmar’s people. The World Bank this year said Myanmar’s potential for inclusive growth has been “severely weakened” and “there is little appetite to invest.”
6. What’s the history?
After World War II, Burma, as it was then known, emerged from British colonial rule and plunged directly into civil conflict. Ethnic minorities make up a third of the population of 55 million and occupy half the land, including areas where valuable resources such as jade, gold and teak are found. A deal providing them with greater autonomy fell apart after Aung San Suu Kyi’s father, Aung San, who was slated to become the country’s first leader, was gunned down in 1947. A coup led by army chief Ne Win in 1962 started a half-century of military rule, during which the country descended into desperate poverty. Troops viciously suppressed pro-democracy protests in 1988. Two years later the army annulled an election that Aung San Suu Kyi’s party had won by a landslide. Under house arrest for much of the next 20 years, she was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991.
7. How did she get into government?
The junta began a transition to civilian rule with a new constitution in 2008 that reserved 25 per cent of Parliamentary seats for the military – enough to block any amendments to it. Still, Aung San Suu Kyi’s party took part in by-elections in 2012 after the government at the time agreed to the release of political prisoners, the freedom to assemble and an opening to foreign investors. Her party then swept to victory in the first full elections in 2015, defeating the ruling party by a margin of nearly 10-to-1. The constitution bars Aung San Suu Kyi from serving as president because her children are UK citizens. Thus, in 2016 she became state counsellor, a newly created role akin to prime minister, as well as foreign minister.
8. How did she do?
Her administration liberalised banking, insurance and education and curbed inflation. But about a third of the population was living in poverty and businesses remained mired in red tape. The military continued to control the defence, home affairs and border affairs ministries. Its forces have been accused by United Nations investigators of practising “ethnic cleansing” and “crimes against humanity” with “genocidal intent” in driving more than 700,000 Rohingya people over the border to Bangladesh since 2017. (Among Myanmar’s Buddhist majority, prejudice against the Rohingya – Muslims castigated as illegal immigrants and stripped of citizenship – remains fierce and widespread.) Amid the opprobrium, foreign direct investment fell to US$2.3 billion in 2019 from US$4.7 billion in 2017. The military turned on Aung San Suu Kyi even though she defended them in 2019 at the International Court of Justice against the genocide allegations – increasing her popularity at home at the expense of her international reputation. BLOOMBERG
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