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Indonesia’s 5.6% growth is a fiscal ‘sugar rush’, not a structural boom

How can an economy grow so fast while its currency hits record lows?

    • For Indonesia to remain a stable anchor for the region, it must pivot from consumption-driven stimulus to urgent structural reforms, says the writer.
    • For Indonesia to remain a stable anchor for the region, it must pivot from consumption-driven stimulus to urgent structural reforms, says the writer. PHOTO: REUTERS
    Published Mon, May 18, 2026 · 09:00 AM

    ON PAPER, Indonesia’s first-quarter 2026 gross domestic product growth of 5.61 per cent is the envy of the region.

    For investors banking on South-east Asia’s largest economy, the headline figure signals a booming resurgence, marking the fastest expansion in recent years.

    However, a closer look under the hood reveals a more precarious reality: This is an expansion built heavily on state-funded stimulus rather than structural market strength.