Malaysia could hit 70% full vaccination by Oct, Vietnam remains laggard in Asean: Citi

MALAYSIA could be the next Asean country to hit the 70 per cent milestone for full vaccination by October, racing ahead of others in a region that has seen improvements in vaccine coverage amid "significant gaps" between countries, according to a Citi report.

Citi economists noted that the Malaysian government started to ease restrictions in Selangor, Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya from Sept 10, while the country is set to treat Covid-19 as an endemic disease by the end of October.

Mobility in the country has also been picking up since June, especially in the capital, as vaccination coverage improves, Citi said.

This follows Singapore, which is currently the most vaccinated country in South-east Asia at a rate of 81 per cent.

Citi noted that the Republic's mobility index is at a four-month high, but community infections have also risen sharply.

Still, the government said it will not tighten restrictions for now, even as it is stepping up testing for frontline workers.

Citi is expecting Singapore to open more broadly and remove mandatory quarantine for most arrivals by the fourth quarter of this year.

"Reopening progress will be tested in places like Singapore where new local cases are also at historic high," said the Citi team.

Meanwhile, Thailand could see 70 per cent of its population getting at least one dose of the vaccine by Q4.

The country has officially shifted its Covid-19 strategy to one that focuses on "learning to live with Covid-19", said the Citi team, with the authorities easing some business lockdown measures from Sept 1.

Thailand also plans to partially reopen Bangkok and other key tourism destinations in October, as 91 per cent of Bangkok's population received their first dose, followed by 86 per cent in Phuket, Citi noted. The national average is 39 per cent.

This is followed by the Philippines, which could see 70 per cent of its population with at least one shot by Q1 2022, Citi said, noting that vaccine supply has increased despite a slowdown in daily vaccination rate in August.

The current outbreak shows no clear signs of peaking yet, and while the national capital region is under strict containment measures, the authorities are looking to shift towards more targeted lockdowns from Sept 16, Citi said.

In Indonesia, daily cases driven by the Delta variant have fallen sharply since the peak in mid-July, Citi noted.

"We think a combination of high antibody prevalence from natural infections, as well as high vaccination rates in the most affected places have effectively slowed the spread," said the Citi team.

While 96 per cent of Jakarta's population and 75 per cent in Bali have received their first dose, the figure nationwide is 25 per cent.

The Citi team is thus expecting Indonesia to only reach 70 per cent full vaccination by Q3 next year.

Vietnam remains a laggard in the region, and Citi expects Vietnam to vaccinate 70 per cent of its population only by Q2 next year.

Its vaccination rate is still one of the lowest in Asia at 5.2 per cent, even though the daily innoculation rate picked up this month, Citi said.

The country had been hit by a fresh wave of Covid-19 infections since May, with restrictions progressively tightened in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi from early July.

While the authorities have announced plans to live with Covid-19 and are planning to further ease curbs in Hanoi, they have also extended restrictions in Ho Chi Minh City until end-September.

"While Delta remains a big risk, we think we are reaching 'peak lockdown' as more are viewing Covid as endemic, balancing economic risks with protection from vaccination and are moving towards easing," said the Citi team.

"Philippines and Vietnam still face historically high cases and relatively slow vaccination, but even Philippines is now easing lockdowns in the capital region, leaving Vietnam, especially the South, with the most impaired mobility in Asia," it added.