Malaysia’s polls likely to end in ‘unity government’ with no coalition gaining majority

[KUALA LUMPUR] As millions of Malaysians head to the polls on Saturday (Nov 19), all eyes are on whether the long-standing Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition will make up for its electoral loss in 2018, or be defeated once more by the younger Pakatan Harapan (PH) alliance.

Whichever the case, neither coalition is expected to gain a majority in this general election (GE). This means a “unity government” will have to be formed – raising the question of which other parties will be brought in.

In the snap polls, close to 950 candidates – including 108 independents – will contest 222 parliamentary seats, with three-cornered fights in over 200 of these.

Parliamentary affairs researcher Ong Ooi Heng anticipates more “exciting” changes post-election, as political parties negotiate to form a coalition government or unity government.

A new “anti-hopping” law took effect on Oct 5, preventing political defections by prohibiting Members of Parliament from switching parties. But this does not stop political parties from collaborating with others to gain majority support.

“There are no permanent enemies in politics,” Ong told The Business Times. “This means there might be the possibility of BN working with Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) or other parties; and to form a coalition government, this could happen between coalitions too.”

The Islamic party PAS, which has strongholds in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu, is part of the Perikatan Nasional (PN) alliance in the upcoming polls – but is also open to collaborating with BN.

PAS secretary-general Takiyuddin Hassan earlier said that the party will work with BN if election results dictate the need for a coalition government. But separately, there is speculation that PN and BN’s rival PH could join hands to form a stronger majority.

Apart from who will form the government, a related question is who the next prime minister will be. The candidates are caretaker PM Ismail Sabri Yaakob from BN; former deputy PM Anwar Ibrahim from PH; former PM Muhyiddin Yassin from PN; and two-time former PM Mahathir Mohamad from Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA).

Market observers and think tanks are split on the question – apart from agreeing that the nonagenarian Dr Mahathir does not have a chance.

In a YouGov survey released on Nov 16, the coalition most expected to secure the largest share of votes was PH. It was chosen by 35 per cent of 2,687 respondents, who also predict that its leader Anwar will be the next PM.

But when it came to voter views of PM candidates, Muhyiddin appeared to make the best impression with 33 per cent feeling positive about him, compared to 29 per cent for Anwar, 22 per cent for Ismail and 14 per cent for Mahathir.

In contrast, Fitch Solutions predicted in a Nov 16 report that BN will secure a majority. Although all coalitions have committed to a programme of social payments to alleviate the impact of inflation, BN’s landslide victories in state elections suggest that it has “regained significant political momentum”, said the research firm.

BN won 21 out of 28 seats in Malacca’s state election in 2021, and 40 out of 56 seats in Johor’s state election in March 2022. These “likely serve as a bellwether for the upcoming general elections”, said Fitch Solutions, adding that BN has the advantage of “more actual governing experience”.

Liew agreed that voters wanting a more “stable” government will likely choose BN and PN – but this also means the country will return to the “same old” model with less structural reforms.

“Those who want to see significant changes in the country will choose PH which has more young leaders, who have been pushing structural reforms when they were in power back in 2018 to 2020,” he said.

Analysts have identified four states that could be “kingmakers” in the polls: Sarawak, Sabah, Johor and Perak.

On Sarawak and Sabah, Ong noted that these two East Malaysia states hold 56 parliament seats, a quarter of the total. The parties with strongest influence there, Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), have not yet established collaborations with any coalition in Peninsular Malaysia, he added.

He forecasts that GPS could win 24 out of 31 seats in Sarawak, while GRS could secure 10 out of 25 seats in Sabah. “It will be interesting to see which coalition (in Peninsular Malaysia) GPS and GRS chose to work with after the election, as both coalitions are pragmatic when it comes to collaborations.”

In Johor, BN’s landslide victory in the state election does not guarantee strong support in the GE, due to the divided Malay vote, said Ong. The state election victory was due mainly to a collaboration with Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), led by PN leader Muhyiddin, who is now in a three-way fight to defend his Pagoh seat in Johor.

In this general election, the majority of Chinese votes are likely to go to PH, while the Malay vote may be divided between PN and BN. This means an intense fight for BN, which only secured eight out of 26 seats in GE 2018.

Meanwhile, in Perak, political analyst Liew Wui Chern observed a swing of mood which might cause BN to lose its current parliamentary stronghold there, including the Bagan Datuk seat held by chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who faces a four-way fight.

Close to 900 Perak residents had to leave their homes for evacuation centres on Thursday night, due to flash floods caused by a heavy downpour. Said Liew: “Zahid may have strong grassroots support in Perak, but when the people are affected by floods, their priority is no longer casting their ballots.”

A rise in young “outstation” Perak voters who live elsewhere – and tend to favour other parties – could also mean a higher chance of BN losing its grip on the state, he added.

Nationwide, over 2,000 people have been affected by floods caused by heavy rains early this week. This sparked renewed criticism of Ismail Sabri’s decision to call the election despite flood warnings by the Malaysian Meteorological Department.

Last year, Malaysia was battered by the worst floods in its history, causing the displacement of over 60,000 people, more than 50 deaths, and RM6.1 billion (S$1.84 billion) in losses.