Middle East conflict clouds Thai banks’ outlook as profits slip

[BANGKOK] Two major Thai banks struck a cautious tone on their 2026 outlook after reporting weak first-quarter net income, underscoring growing risks from Middle East conflict and a global energy shock.

SCB X, the country’s largest lender by market value, posted a more than 18 per cent drop in first-quarter net income to 10.2 billion baht (S$404.8 million), missing analysts’ expectations.

The second-largest bank Kasikornbank also reported softer results, with profit declining 3 per cent after excluding a one-off investment-related compensation gain.

The subdued performance highlights how quickly global geopolitical shocks are feeding into the Thai economy.

The nation is highly exposed to the Middle East through energy imports, purchasing more than half of its crude from the region, leaving it vulnerable to oil price spikes and supply disruptions.

The Middle East tensions are likely to persist, heightening economic uncertainty and weighing on future operating performance, Kattiya Indaravijaya, Kasikornbank’s CEO, said after the earnings release on Tuesday (Apr 21).

She added that rising energy and logistics costs are also fuelling inflationary pressures, further straining businesses and households.

The gauge of Thai banking stocks has fallen more than 5 per cent from its 2026 peak reached in February.

Separately, SCB X CEO Arthid Nanthawithaya pointed to broader ripple effects, including higher import costs and headwinds for Thailand’s key export and tourism sectors, with the impact filtering through to both companies and consumers.

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Krungsri Securities may cut its net profit forecast for the bank after the earnings miss.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Sarah Jane Mahmud and Diksha Gera said that Kasikornbank’s profit is likely to remain under pressure this year from elevated provisioning, weak loan growth and tighter margins.

Still, both Kattiya and Arthid said that their banks are committed to supporting customers as they navigate the ongoing uncertainty. BLOOMBERG