Philippine economic growth beats expectations amid inflation and rate hikes

THE Philippine economy expanded faster than expected in the first quarter, as resilient post-pandemic demand helped defy elevated inflation and the central bank’s aggressive monetary tightening.

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the three months through March rose 6.4 per cent from a year earlier, the Philippine Statistics Authority said on Thursday (May 11). Although faster than the 6.2 per cent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey, it marks the slowest expansion since the economy exited the pandemic-induced downturn.

The economy was supported by strong pent-up demand, National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) secretary Arsenio Balisacan said at a briefing in Manila, calling it a “promising beginning to 2023”. This, even as first-quarter consumption growth slowed from a year ago amid the fastest inflation in 14 years and the highest borrowing costs in 16 years.

Compared to the previous three months ended December, the economy grew 1.1 per cent, against an estimate of 0.7 per cent. The stock index rose and is set for a third day of gains while the peso fell against the US dollar after the data.

The first-quarter performance provides a boost to the government’s target of achieving 6 per cent to 7 per cent full-year growth. While that is slower than last year’s 7.6 per cent expansion – the fastest in almost half a century – the South-east Asian nation is poised to remain a bright spot in a world facing risks to growth from tighter monetary policy.

“Growth was robust and slightly higher than anticipated,” said Irene Cheung, senior FX strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group in Singapore. “This may mean that domestic demand will remain strong. This will sustain the market’s concern over the country’s wide trade deficit” and weigh on the peso.

Neda’s Balisacan warned that raising interest rates further may dampen GDP growth ahead, as he foresees pent-up demand easing. He expects the downtrend in consumer price gains to continue, implying there is room for the central bank to pause monetary tightening.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), which has raised the policy rate by 425 basis points since May 2022, has said it will consider first-quarter GDP data and inflation numbers in deciding monetary policy settings next week.

BSP governor Felipe Medalla has signalled openness to pause the central bank’s most aggressive tightening cycle in two decades at the May 18 meeting amid signs of cooling pressures. Inflation has slowed since February and was at an eight-month low in April.

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For Neda’s Balisacan, last quarter’s GDP slowdown was temporary. “The favourable investment climate that will come out as a result of decreased inflation will more than outweigh any residual effects of the past increases in interest rates,” he said. BLOOMBERG