Ringgit’s outperformance set to extend next year on AI boost

[SINGAPORE] The Malaysian ringgit is on course to beat its Asian peers for a second straight year, and some strategists are expecting the outperformance to extend into 2026.

Malaysia’s deep linkages to the global tech supply chain, positive growth prospects and the government’s continued push on fiscal consolidation bode well for the ringgit, according to strategists. A likely stable central bank policy next year offers further support.

Strategists at Bank of Singapore and MUFG Bank expect the ringgit to trade near the 4.00 per US dollar level by the end of next year. Goldman Sachs is forecasting the currency to strengthen to 3.95, which would be the highest in seven years.

“The ringgit looks set to extend gains next year, underpinned by robust tech exports on surging artificial intelligence (AI) demand and rising foreign direct investment flows, especially into data centres,” said Moh Siong Sim, FX strategist at Bank of Singapore.

The ringgit has strengthened more than 9 per cent against the US dollar this year, making it Asia’s best-performing currency. It opened little changed at 4.0982 per US dollar on Monday (Dec 15) after two sessions of gains.

Malaysia has emerged as a hub for data centre buildouts in the region, creating new growth opportunities for the economy. Data-centre export services surged to RM10.7 billion (S$3.4 billion) in the first nine months of the year, from RM1.2 billion during the same period in 2024, according to the central bank.

Bank Negara Malaysia is also unlikely to ease policy further, Goldman Sachs strategists said, helping to narrow yield differentials even as the US Federal Reserve signalled one more rate cut in 2026.

“According to our FX valuation models, the ringgit is significantly undervalued,” Goldman Sachs strategists, including Danny Suwanapruti, wrote in a note. The consensus is still bullish on the ringgit, they said.

Technical indicators are flashing favourable signs. The US dollar-ringgit pair has breached the support level of 4.0947, its September 2024 low, opening the way towards the key 4.00 level. Malaysia’s trade data due Dec 19 may provide a further catalyst if it confirms continued strength in the nation’s tech exports.

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“The ringgit’s appreciation this year has been supported by a combination of domestic economic resilience and easing external pressures,” said Lloyd Chan, FX strategist at MUFG Bank. “These supportive factors will persist into 2026, so we stay constructive on the outlook for the ringgit.” BLOOMBERG