South-east Asia set for rocky H2 2023, but recession unlikely: analysts
The trade boost from China’s reopening may be limited, as Asean’s exports are closely related to China’s industrial cycle
SOUTH-EAST Asian economies are set for a bumpy second half, with slower external demand still a challenge – though a domestic recovery and the services sector should help to avert a recession.
The growth in most major economies in the region moderated in early 2023, and “risks to Asean’s growth outlook are weighted to the downside” in the next six months, said DBS economists Chua Han Teng and Radhika Rao in a joint note to The Business Times.
Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to slow to 4.2 per cent among the Asean-6 this year, down from the 5.7 per cent posted in 2022, Maybank has estimated. The Asean-6 comprise Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
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