Asean’s export rush wanes as tariff clock ticks down
Front-loaded gains lift April trade across the region but momentum is fading, and a tougher second half looms
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[SINGAPORE/KUALA LUMPUR/HANOI/JAKARTA] South-east Asia’s export boom may be running on borrowed time as traders rush to front-load goods ahead of the end of US President Donald Trump’s 90-day tariff pause on Jul 9, masking signs of fading momentum.
While April’s export data climbed year on year across much of the region, a closer look reveals a month-on-month slowdown that is already hitting Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines, with the rest of South-east Asia likely to follow by the second half of the year.
April trade figures suggest not just front-loading, but also a possible rerouting of US-destined China-origin goods through Asean economies, said Nomura analysts Rob Subbaraman and Toh Si Ying. Such front-loading means Asian export growth in the second quarter of the year could be stronger than projected, noted the duo in a May 28 report.
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