Tariff shift opens doors for Vietnam’s steel, but risks loom
Taxes could level the playing field against competitors that previously faced lower duties, analysts say
[HO CHI MINH CITY] Vietnam’s steel industry finds itself at a pivotal juncture, navigating a landscape of both promising opportunities and significant challenges stemming from recent US tariff adjustments.
While the country has emerged as a key steel supplier to the US, having experienced a dramatic surge in exports, it now faces the complexities of potential anti-dumping investigations and the need to adjust pricing strategies.
Vietnam ranks among the US’ top 10 steel suppliers and Asean’s largest, with exports surging 159 per cent year on year to US$983 million in 2024, according to US Customs.
The US was Vietnam’s third-largest steel export market, accounting for 13 per cent of shipments, behind Asean at 26 per cent and the European Union at 23 per cent, the Vietnam Steel Association reported.
Vo Thi Ngoc Han, an industrial analyst at Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corporation (HSC), said the tariffs could improve the competitiveness of Vietnamese steel exporters in the US market.
Leveling the playing field
“This move levels the playing field for Vietnam’s steelmakers against competitors that previously faced lower duties,” she told The Business Times.
However, some Vietnamese galvanised-steel exporters may need to cut prices by around 3 per cent to maintain market share, thus squeezing profit margins, said MB Securities analyst Le Hai Thanh.
Vietnam’s steel sheet exports to the US surged 142 per cent in 2024 to US$584 million. But the sector remains under scrutiny, as US authorities are investigating Vietnam for potential anti-dumping and countervailing duty violations, with a final ruling expected in the second quarter of 2025.
HSC’s Han noted that ongoing investigations remain a concern, prompting steel sheet producers to cut back on US exports and seek alternative markets while awaiting the US decision.
Adding to the mix, Vietnam has imposed temporary anti-dumping duties on China’s hot-rolled coil, ranging from 19 to 28 per cent, effective early this month for 120 days.
