Thai business group keeps 2026 GDP growth forecast at 1.6% to 2%

[BANGKOK] Thailand’s economy is expected to grow within a range of 1.6 to 2 per cent this year, a leading business group said on Wednesday (Feb 4), maintaining its previous forecast amid political turmoil and a likely decline in exports from last year’s high base.

Exports, a key driver of Thai growth, are projected to drop by between 0.5 and 1.5 per cent this year, also unchanged from a previous prediction, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking said.

“There are concerns about (growth in) the 2026 economy, which is likely to fall below 2 per cent, with risks also coming from a potentially delayed budget for the 2027 fiscal year,” Kriengkrai Theinnukul, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, told a news conference.

The possible delay is due to a political transition, with Thailand heading into a general election on Sunday.

South-east Asia’s second-largest economy has been struggling with the appreciating baht, US tariffs, high household debt and political uncertainty ahead of the vote.

The baht has eased slightly against the US dollar so far this year after a 9 per cent increase last year threatened the competitiveness of Thailand’s export and tourism sectors.

The forecast drop in exports in 2026 is a result of last year’s high base as well as the strength of the currency, Kriengkrai said.

Shipments soared 12.9 per cent last year, the highest growth rate in four years, driven by front-loading amid concerns about the impact of US tariffs.

The United States imposed a 19 per cent tariff on imported goods from Thailand, in line with other countries in the region.

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However, there are still uncertainties relating to US tariffs on transshipments via Thailand from third countries. REUTERS