Thai business group raises 2026 GDP growth forecast to range of 2.1% to 2.5%

[BANGKOK] Thailand’s economy is expected to grow by 2.1 per cent to 2.5 per cent this year, a leading business group said on Wednesday (Sep 2), raising its outlook from an earlier forecast of 1.6 per cent to 2.0 per cent growth.

The outlook upgrade was driven by a faster-than-expected rise in exports and private investment, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking said in a statement.

Exports, a key driver of Thai growth, are now expected to rise 12 per cent to 16 per cent, up from a previously projected rise of 8 per cent to 10 per cent, the group said.

The spillover effects of exports and private investment on the economy have weakened, reflecting Thailand’s reduced ability to capture value domestically due to its heavy reliance on imported content, the group said.

The latest wave of investment in data centres has created only limited employment opportunities compared with the past, it said. The state planning agency has called for the creation of a central authority to oversee data centres investments to ensure they jobs and support growth.

The business group maintained its forecast for headline inflation at 2.5 per cent to 3.0 per cent this year, near the upper end of the central bank’s target range of 1 per cent to 3 per cent.

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South-east Asia’s second-largest economy expanded 1.9 per cent annually in the second quarter of 2026, down sharply from 2.8 per cent in the previous quarter.

The economy, which has lagged peers since the pandemic, expanded 2.4% last year. REUTERS