Thai November export growth misses forecast; rice shipments surge

THAILAND’S exports in November rose at a slower pace and missed analysts’ forecasts despite a surge in rice shipments, and the commerce ministry said on Monday (Dec 25) that full-year exports would post a small drop before rising in 2024.

Customs-based exports, a key driver of Thailand’s economy, were up 4.9 per cent in November from a year earlier, missing the 6.3 per cent rise forecast in a Reuters poll, and against October’s 8 per cent increase.

Exports were helped by higher shipments of agricultural products and electronic goods, which saw advance orders before the year-end festive season, the ministry said.

Shipments are expected to show further growth in December but a drop of less than 1.5 per cent for the full year, Keerati Rushchano, the ministry’s permanent secretary, told a briefing.

“Exports might be negative this year but should rise about 2 per cent next year,” he said.

Attacks by Yemen’s Houthi militants on ships in the Red Sea, if prolonged, could impact Thai exports in January, Keerati said.

In November, exports of agriculture products rose 7.7 per cent on the year. Rice shipments jumped 41.8 per cent to one million tonnes, with the value up 68 per cent on the year. Exports of computers increased, but auto shipments contracted.

Rice exports saw high demand due to concerns over food insecurity, Keerati said.

Shipments to the United States rose 17.5 per cent and those to Japan increased 4.3 per cent, while exports to China fell 3.9 per cent.

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In November, imports rose 10.1 per cent year-on-year, for a trade deficit of US$2.4 billion.

January-to-November exports declined 1.5 per cent from the same period last year, while imports dropped 3.8 per cent and the trade deficit stood at US$6.2 billion. REUTERS