Thai Q4 GDP growth slows, 2023 outlook trimmed

THAILAND’S economic growth slowed more than expected in the fourth quarter of 2022 as exports and manufacturing declined but a rebound in the vital tourism sector should continue to boost the recovery this year amid weaker global demand.

South-east Asia’s second-largest economy expanded 1.4 per cent in the October-December period from a year earlier, data from the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) showed on Friday (Feb 17).

That compared with a forecast rise of 3.5 per cent in a Reuters poll and revised 4.6 per cent growth in the September quarter.

On a quarterly basis, GDP contracted a seasonally adjusted 1.5 per cent in October-December, missing expectations for a 0.5 per cent rise.

In 2022, the tourism-dependent economy expanded 2.6 per cent, after growing 1.5 per cent in the previous year, which was among the slowest growth rates in the region.

Despite the slower Q4, the economic recovery is expected to gain some traction, with China’s earlier-than-expected reopening providing a further boost to the tourism sector, helping offset some of the impact of weakening exports.

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On Friday, the NESDC predicted the economy would grow 2.7 per cent to 3.7 per cent this year, down from a previous forecast of 3 per cent to 4 per cent growth.

With the return of China’s visitors, the agency now expects Thailand to receive 28 million foreign tourist arrivals this year, up from the 23.5 million projected earlier.

Thailand beat its tourism target in 2022 with 11.15 million foreign visitors. In pre-pandemic 2019, it welcomed a record of nearly 40 million visitors, who spent 1.91 trillion baht (S$74 billion). REUTERS