Thailand to hold general elections on May 14 as Prayuth bids to extend his near decade-long rule

THAILAND will hold a general election on May 14, with a pre-poll survey showing opposition parties holding a clear lead over military-backed establishment parties in the outgoing government led by Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha.

Candidates should register to contest the 400 constituency seats to the House of Representatives from Apr 3 to Apr 7, the Election Commission said on Tuesday (Mar 21). Political parties will need to nominate their candidates for the 100 party-list seats from Apr 4-Apr 7, it said in a statement.

Parties must submit a list of their prime ministerial nominees to the election agency by Apr 7. After the May vote, the newly-elected members of the lower house and the military-appointed Senate will pick Thailand’s next leader from the list of candidates.

The setting of the election date follows the dissolution of the House of Representatives on Monday, days before it was due to complete its four-year term.

More than 52 million voters will elect 500 members to the lower house in a two-ballot system that will see 100 seats being alloted based on the proportion of votes that each party receives.

A survey published on Mar 19 showed Prayuth, 69, falling to the third position in the ranking of preferred prime minister candidates, as opposition Pheu Thai Party’s Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, widened her lead as the top choice.

Pheu Thai, which is bidding to win more than 300 seats, bagged 49.8 per cent approval rating among voters in the quarterly survey by the National Institute of Development Administration. It was followed by liberal Move Forward party at 17.4 per cent and Prayuth’s United Thai Nation party in the third spot with a backing of 11.8 per cent.

Although pre-election surveys project opposition parties holding an edge, the rules are stacked in favour of military-backed groups. That’s because the 2017 constitution gives the 250-member Senate, comprising mostly of establishment allies, the power to vote alongside the lower house until 2024 to pick the next prime minister.

The new leader must win the backing of at least 376 lawmakers and Senators, or more than half of the combined houses.

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The May election will be the first since 2019 when Palang Pracharath Party, formed by allies of Prayuth’s then-military junta, won the most votes and cobbled together a coalition to allow him to retain the top job. The former army chief, who has been in power since the 2014 coup that toppled a government headed by Thaksin’s sister Yingluck Shinawatra, is now seeking to extend his rule with the newly-formed United Thai Nation.

Prayuth is betting the return of millions of tourists and billions of US dollars in stimulus programmes will boost South-east Asia’s second largest economy and his election prospects. However, he’s facing voter discontent arising from high living costs and an uneven economic recovery.

While the preliminary outcome of the vote will be available on the same night, official results may take about two months and will likely be announced sometime in early July, according to government spokesman Anucha Burapachaisri.

That will allow the next parliament to hold its first meeting in mid-July and the selection of the next prime minister will likely take place at the end of that month, according to Anucha. BLOOMBERG