Thailand lowers 2024 GDP growth projection to 2.8%
THAILAND’S economy is expected to grow 2.8 per cent this year, a sharp downgrade from an earlier forecast of 3.2 per cent, bolstering the government’s push for stimulus to revive an economy it says is in “crisis”.
Gross domestic product expansion last year was also down significantly, said the country’s Ministry of Finance. It estimated that GDP growth in 2023 at just 1.8 per cent, compared with 2.7 per cent previously. The economy expanded 2.6 per cent in 2022, and 1.5 per cent in the July-to-September quarter of 2023 from a year earlier.
Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, who is also finance minister, is eager to revive South-east Asia’s second-largest economy with an injection of US$14.05 billion this year, by giving 50 million Thais S$281 each to spend within six months.
The government is also seeking to boost tourism, a key economic driver, in a move to offset weakness in exports, another crucial sector, which was projected to contract 1.5 per cent last year.
The Ministry of Finance said it expects foreign arrivals in 2024 at 33.5 million, down slightly from a previous forecast of 34.5 million. It also estimated that exports will grow 4.2 per cent this year, from an earlier forecast of 4.4 per cent.
The economy is expected to grow faster this year than in 2023, due to higher exports, services and tourism arrivals, the ministry added.
Separately, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected growth of 2.5 per cent in 2023, lower than its November projection of 2.7 per cent expansion. But it placed 2024 growth at 4.4 per cent, above the 3.6 per cent forecast in November.
“Growth is projected to accelerate briefly in 2024, on account of improvements in external demand and robust growth in private consumption bolstered by the government’s fiscal stimulus,” it said on Monday (Jan 22).
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