Thailand's economic recovery on track but exports weigh

THAILAND’S economic recovery remained on track in July, as private spending increased and the tourism sector expanded on higher foreign tourist arrivals – even as exports declined, the central bank said on Thursday (Aug 31).

Economic activity would mainly rely on tourism, given that as exports, a key driver of growth, were not expected to improve until the final quarter of 2023, Sakkapop Panyanukul, a senior director at the Bank of Thailand (BOT), told a briefing.

For August and the rest of the year, the BOT would monitor a slowdown in trading partners, policies of the incoming Thai government and the impact of El Nino weather patterns on the production and price of farm products, he said.

The BOT is likely to reduce its 3.6 per cent economic growth forecast for this year after a weaker-than-expected second quarter, Sakkapop said. This month, the BOT governor also flagged an outlook downgrade, which will be published in September.

Sakkapop, however, said there should not be a “scary” outlook reduction as tourism was still recovering.

The BOT has predicted 29 million tourist arrivals this year, compared with nearly 40 million visitors in pre-pandemic 2019.

South-east Asia’s second-largest economy grew 1.8 per cent in the April-to-June period on the year and 0.2 per cent on the quarter, sharply slowing from the previous quarter’s 2.6 per cent and 1.7 per cent, respectively, as exports slumped.

The economy has wobbled from slowing global growth and falling investor confidence due to prolonged political uncertainty following the elections in May.

A new government is, however, expected to start work soon as Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin is set to finalise his Cabinet in the coming days, before it is sent for royal approval.

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Sakkapop said the new government’s handout via digital wallets, worth 560 billion baht (S$21.6 billion), would have an impact on both the economy and inflation, which will be assessed later.

In July, exports contracted 5.5 per cent from a year earlier.

The country recorded a current account deficit of US$0.4 billion in July, after a surplus of US$1.4 billion the previous month, the central bank said. REUTERS