Trump’s pick as Vietnam envoy sets sights on trade gap as Hanoi’s surplus with US tops China’s
Vietnam’s rise is closely linked to a sharp decline in China’s trade with the US
[HANOI] The Trump administration plans to replace the US ambassador to Vietnam with a nominee set on addressing “imbalanced” trade relations, as Hanoi’s goods trade surplus with Washington surpassed China’s in recent quarters while it was locked in unresolved tariff negotiations with Washington.
On Sunday (Jan 18), current ambassador Marc Knapper will end his tenure after being abruptly recalled before Christmas alongside several other career diplomats. His designated successor, career diplomat Jennifer Wicks McNamara, who is awaiting US Senate confirmation after being nominated in October, has said the trade relationship needs rectifying.
The South-east Asian nation reported record exports to the US last year despite 20 per cent US tariffs since August, generating a surplus of nearly US$134 billion, according to Vietnamese government data, which are more conservative than US figures.
“The current trade relationship is imbalanced,” Wicks told US lawmakers in December, noting that if confirmed she would promote equitable access for US goods and services to Vietnam and encourage Vietnamese investment in the US.
The US Supreme Court may rule on the legality of the White House’s tariffs as soon as this week, but analysts said Vietnam will likely face US pressure regardless of the ruling.
“The administration still has multiple avenues to re-escalate tariff rates,” said Adam Samdin, an economist at Oxford Economics. The US trade deficit with Vietnam leaves Hanoi “vulnerable,” he said.
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Knapper was an advocate for closer ties with Vietnam and frequently expressed optimism about the outcome of trade talks with Hanoi.
Wicks, a State Department official for over two decades, also aims to deepen security cooperation with Vietnam, an objective long emphasised by Knapper.
Vietnam overtakes China
The latest seasonally adjusted US data shows Vietnam’s January to October trade surplus in goods reached US$144.2 billion, already surpassing its full-year 2024 record.
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Crucially, Vietnam’s goods trade surplus was higher than China’s in the second and third quarters of 2025, the latest available US data shows. Among US partners, only Mexico had a larger gap in those quarters.
Vietnam’s rise is closely linked to a sharp decline in China’s trade with the US: Beijing’s goods trade surplus nearly halved to US$41.4 billion in the third quarter from the same quarter in 2024, whereas Vietnam’s rose by about 43 per cent in the same period to US$44.8 billion, according to seasonally adjusted US data.
China’s trade surplus with the US still remains higher than Vietnam’s for the full January-October period.
Meanwhile, China’s exports to Vietnam boomed last year, Vietnamese data show.
The Trump administration has repeatedly accused Vietnam of being a waypoint for Chinese goods directed to the US, which face lower duties when carrying a “Made in Vietnam” label.
Illegally transshipped goods are subject to US tariffs of 40 per cent, but the White House has not yet indicated its criteria to determine what can be considered as illegal transshipment.
“Given Washington’s ongoing scrutiny of illegal transshipment, pressure on transshipment issues is likely to remain high, and likely intensify, with the new US ambassador,” said Phan Xuan Dung, a researcher at the ISeaS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. REUTERS
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