Vietnam aims for first nuclear power plant by 2030, but experts question feasibility

[HO CHI MINH CITY] As Vietnam aims to bring its first nuclear power plants online by as early as 2030, the government has quickly moved to engage with foreign partners that export the technology, assign state utilities as lead investors, and, most recently, issue special policies to accelerate the project’s implementation.

All these efforts have taken place in less than three months after relaunching its Ninh Thuan nuclear project last November, after it was suspended in 2016.

The goal is to put at least one of its first two nuclear power plants into operation between 2031 and 2035, though the trade minister has also indicated that the government will try to get it working by 2030. The plants are seen as crucial infrastructure for Vietnam to achieve double-digit growth in the coming years, as well as fulfil its net-zero commitment by mid-century. 

However, experts have raised concerns about the feasibility of meeting this accelerated goal.

“It is good to have a target, but they must also be realistic,” said Zaf Coelho, global managing director at Singapore-based consultancy firm Nuclear Business Platform. He pointed out that the shortest timeline ever achieved for a nuclear power plant to be completed after plans were first announced was 10 years.

According to the drafted revision of the national power development plan (PDP8) unveiled by the trade ministry earlier this month, Vietnam’s nuclear power capacity is projected to range from 2,400 to 4,800 megawatts (MW) by 2035, or between 0.8 per cent and 1.3 per cent of the power mix.

This depends on the final scenario adopted after the revision of the plan, which was initially passed in 2023 without including nuclear energy. “These steps (to restart the Ninh Thuan project) underscore Vietnam’s focus on balancing energy reliability and decarbonisation rather than relying solely on renewables,” Onyx Strategic Insights wrote in a recent analysis.

John Rockhold, head of the Power and Energy Working Group at the Vietnam Business Forum, raised concerns about the country’s ability to establish the necessary legal frameworks and procurement policies within the proposed timeline, which could hinder international investment and collaboration with state-owned enterprises on such large-scale nuclear projects.

“The revised PDP8 has the potential to ensure Vietnam’s energy security, but time is of the essence to support both the workforce development and the development of the first few nuclear plants in order to validate its viability in Vietnam,” said Rockhold, who is also the president of Pacific Rim Investment and Management, a consultancy firm in Vietnam’s energy and infrastructure sector. 

On Wednesday (Feb 19), the country’s parliament gave the nod to a number of special policies and mechanisms to speed up the Ninh Thuan nuclear power project. 

This includes permissions for the implementation of a turnkey contract approach and direct contractor appointment for the plant construction through intergovernmental agreements, effectively bypassing elaborate bidding processes. 

Funding for the project will come primarily from foreign loans through negotiations with partner governments, while project owners are allowed to borrow money without credit risks to develop the plants.

Renewed momentum

Across South-east Asia, the Philippines is the only country that has a nuclear power plant. It was built more than 50 years ago, but has never produced any electricity. 

Last year, the archipelago unveiled its nuclear road map, which aims to have commercially operational nuclear power plants by 2032 with at least 1,200 MW from them entering the country’s power mix initially. 

Singapore’s recently unveiled Budget 2025 highlighted a significant shift in the nation’s energy strategy, with the government prioritising nuclear power over green hydrogen and outlining plans to reorganise efforts towards developing nuclear capabilities.

Almost all other countries in Asean have also expressed interest or released plans for nuclear power. There has been enthusiasm especially over the small modular reactor technology, which is viewed as a viable solution for energy transition to meet the region’s rapidly growing energy demand and its net-zero targets.  

South-east Asia, which is still heavily reliant on fossil fuels for electricity generation, is set to account for one-fourth of the increase in global energy consumption between 2024 and 2035, a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) showed. 

“It may be easier for Vietnam because they have done it before. The Ninh Thuan project 10 years ago put into place the needed infrastructure,” noted Coelho.

According to Vietnam’s National Assembly Economic Committee, before the project was suspended, at least US$100 million had been spent on preparation, including the feasibility study, location planning, workforce training and initial infrastructure investment. 

“Vietnam also stands the greatest chance of having a successful nuclear power programme in South-east Asia because of how the government is structured,” Coelho added.

This view is backed by his observation of China, where a one-party political system similar to Vietnam’s allows for firm and focused energy policies that have enabled the country to gain dominance in the global nuclear sector today.

According to the IEA, China is home to half of the nuclear projects being built, and is expected to surpass both the US and the European Union in terms of installed nuclear power capacity by 2030.

While nuclear power is known to be a near-zero-emissions and reliable electricity source, it is costly and takes more than a decade to develop, with almost all the projects in the world facing cost overruns and delays, observers pointed out. 

Vietnam’s first two nuclear power plants in the south-central province of Ninh Thuan were originally planned in late 2009, at a combined investment of roughly US$11 billion. However, the project was later put on hold due to financial constraints and safety concerns following the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan. 

The trade ministry has estimated the cost of developing nuclear power today at US$5,500 per kilowatt, which would bring the total investment to US$26.4 billion for the entire project, which has a combined capacity of 4,800 MW. 

This is seen as a challenge given that Vietnam is also pushing forward with various multibillion-dollar infrastructure, including high-speed railways and metro networks.

Strategic partner country

Vietnam is holding talks with countries including Russia, Japan, South Korea, France and the United States to establish international agreements on cooperation, construction and credit-financing for the project.

These nations are among the few global exporters of advanced nuclear technologies, with Russia and Japan having been the chosen partners when the project was first planned around 15 years ago.

“At the end of the day, nuclear is not so much about technology. It’s about geopolitics because it is a very highly regulated, highly sensitive major infrastructure,” said Coelho, noting that bilateral cooperation for nuclear power may last the entire lifespan of a nuclear plant, which could be up to 60 years.