What to expect in first 100 days of Prabowo’s rule in Indonesia
INDONESIA’S new leader Prabowo Subianto endeared himself to voters as a kindly grandfather vowing to give free meals to schoolchildren. Now to get things rolling in South-east Asia’s largest economy, the president is signalling a strongman approach.
The former general used his maiden speech on Sunday (Oct 20) to rail against corruption and poverty, a stark departure from his popular, soft-spoken predecessor Joko Widodo. And as Prabowo led lawmakers in parliament to chant the Indonesian word for independence, he said: “Those who do not shout merdeka are not patriotic.”
This shows his style of leadership as an ex-special forces commando who is unafraid to call out his allies and push on with what he thinks is best. After all, Prabowo has set an ambitious 8 per cent growth target for Indonesia in the next two to three years and that means turning around the manufacturing sector, fighting corruption and raising incomes in the world’s fourth most populous country.
“Prabowo’s strongman leadership style may be what a diverse country like Indonesia needs,” Satria Sambijantoro, head of research at PT Bahana Sekuritas, said in a note to clients.
Here’s what to expect in Indonesia in the early days of Prabowo’s presidency:
Corruption fight
Prabowo acknowledged that graft was prevalent among businessmen and politicians and within local and central governments, saying it was keeping millions of Indonesians in poverty. About 9 per cent of the over 280 million population still lives below the poverty line.
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Indonesia’s track record for governance weakened during Widodo’s time. The nation was ranked 115th out of 180 countries in Transparency International’s corruption perceptions index last year, dropping several rungs since the former leader took power in 2014.
Critics say Indonesia’s slide is partly because Widodo brought the anti-corruption watchdog, known as the KPK, under his watch. They say Prabowo would need to make the KPK an independent agency if he is serious about combating graft.
Food security
The ex-special forces commander wants to reduce Indonesia’s reliance on food supplies from other countries amid heightened global tensions and weather uncertainties. A key reason: his free meals programme for school children will require billions of US dollars of food when it kicks off next year and Indonesia remains a key importer of staples such as sugar, rice and beef.
Prabowo wants to see Indonesia achieve food self-sufficiency in four to five years. “We are even ready to become the world’s food barn,” he said.
Economists say it’s a far-fetched goal as farmlands shrink and even fewer Indonesians want to harvest crops. Next year, Prabowo has allocated a food security budget of around US$8 billion, which includes building storage facilities and carving out more rice fields. He also created a new coordinating ministry for food affairs, which will be helmed by Zulkifli Hasan, a former trade minister.
Downstreaming push
Prabowo reiterated his plans to extend downstreaming – leveraging Indonesia’s mineral wealth to secure investment in industrial development – to cover more commodities beyond nickel. He said the policy will help achieve self-sufficiency and bring about more jobs.
The new leader wants to include other commodities such as sugar and palm oil, Bloomberg earlier reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.
Former diplomat Rosan Perkasa Roeslani, newly appointed as investment and downstreaming minister, will lead Prabowo’s agenda. Speculation has also swirled that Prabowo’s brother and close adviser, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, could take a behind-the-scenes position to support the effort. It will be tricky though for Indonesia to pursue a downstreaming campaign for all commodities, especially for those where the country is nowhere near as dominant as it is in nickel.
Parliament control
Prabowo is gunning for full control of parliament, a feat that has not been achieved since the fall of his former father-in-law, the dictator Suharto. The missing piece is the largest party in parliament led by former president Megawati Soekarnoputri.
She did not attend Prabowo’s inauguration due to an illness and has yet to meet with the new president even though his allies have reelected her daughter Puan Maharani as the powerful parliament speaker.
Even without Megawati’s public backing, Prabowo has the majority support in parliament and can push through bills. The question is how Prabowo will react to any popular opposition to his policies given he has faced allegations of human rights abuses during his time as a military man in the dark days of the Suharto regime. He has repeatedly denied wrongdoing.
Foreign Policy
Indonesia will continue to be “friends with all”, Prabowo said at his inauguration, which was attended by the US representative to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, and China’s Vice-President Han Zheng.
Prabowo, who speaks several languages including French and German and is more comfortable on the world stage than Widodo, will attend Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Peru next month and the Group of 20 summit in Brazil immediately after. He is likely to push for more investments from Beijing while keeping security ties with Washington.
He also reiterated that Indonesia backed Palestine’s fight for independence. “We are anti-oppression because we have been oppressed,” he said. “We are anti-racism, we are anti-apartheid.” BLOOMBERG
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