Will 2024 presidential elections set a new direction for Indonesia?
[JAKARTA] IT IS open season now in Indonesia’s political calendar. With the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for February 2024, the race has begun and political jockeying is well underway.
Although three candidates have emerged for the nation’s top job, the race remains dynamic with multiple twists and turns expected over the next five months in the run-up to the nominations, which are due in November.
As incumbent President Joko Widodo is unable to run for a third term under the Constitution, which limits presidents to two terms, Indonesia will have a new president installed in the state palace. But given Jokowi’s popularity, his shadow will loom large over the coming elections.
Indonesian politics is all about personality rather than policy. Although the major political parties can be categorised into two camps – nationalistic and secular against Islamic – in reality there is no difference in policy or national agenda.
The three leading candidates – Ganjar Pranowo, the governor of Central Java who was nominated by the country’s largest political party (PDIP); Prabowo Subianto, who heads the Gerindra Party and is the current Defence Minister; and Anies Baswedan, the former academic and Jakarta governor – have yet to state their economic and social agendas.
All three, however, are working hard to garner support and build coalitions that will propel their candidacies.
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Under the Constitution, only parties with at least 20 per cent of seats in Parliament or 25 per cent of votes in the previous elections can nominate presidential candidates.
Only PDIP currently meets that threshold with the other two candidates having to cobble together coalitions to qualify.
For investors and business leaders, the key question is: Will the three candidates continue Jokowi’s economic policies, or will the nation of 270 million people chart a new economic course under their leadership?
Unless another candidate emerges in the coming weeks, Ganjar is widely seen as the leader of the three frontrunners. He is the one most likely to continue the current government’s policies of downstreaming in the commodities sector, building infrastructure and prioritising domestic manufacturing.
But the other candidates may change direction and focus on more short-term projects which create immediate jobs. It also remains to be seen if, for instance, they will continue to build and invest in Nusantara, the new capital that was declared by Jokowi.
Investors will also pay close attention to the new president’s social agenda, as religious conservatism is pushed by Islamic parties. It also remains to be seen if they will maintain Indonesia’s religious tolerance and state ideology in the face of rising Islamic forces.
Another key question that will determine the presidential race is whom the candidates will pick as their vice-presidential running mates. This will be critical to harnessing support across party lines and the general public as well as financing their campaigns.
Here is a closer look at the three presidential candidates and their backgrounds.
Ganjar Pranowo, 54 years old
The governor of the Central Java province, is the candidate to beat. He shares some similarities with Jokowi in that he comes from a humble background.
The son of a policeman, he entered politics during the reform era and lacks ties to elite families or the military. Ganjar entered parliament in 2004 and rose through the political ranks. He is media savvy, has the backing of Jokowi and the public touch that defines a successful politician.
He is seen as the rightful heir to Jokowi and looks to continue the agenda set by the current president. The main drawback is that he will be beholden to PDIP chairwoman, Megawati Sukarnoputri, widely regarded as the most powerful kingmaker in the country.
Prabowo Subianto, 71
Unlike Ganjar, Prabowo boasts both military and elite family credentials. He is a former lieutenant-general in the Indonesian army and the son-in-law of former president Suharto. This will be his third shot at the presidency, having lost to Jokowi in 2014 and 2019.
Prabowo is often seen as a hard-man, but as Defence Minister, he helped to formulate the 25-year grand design to upgrade and modernise the country’s military. The plan, which calls for US$125 billion in loans, is regarded by military observers as a game-changer but has drawn public criticism from certain quarters.
As the head of Gerindra Party, Prabowo has no heirs or successors, so who leads the party after him remains an open question.
Anies Baswedan, 52
A former Minister of Education and governor of Jakarta, the soft-spoken Anies Baswedan is perhaps the new kid on the block and the most controversial.
His 2017 campaign for the Jakarta governorship raised concerns among a large swathe of the public, as he aligned with hardline Islamic groups to attack Basuki Purnama, better known as Ahok, for blasphemy.
He has attempted to downplay those ties, and has recently been travelling widely outside the country to meet with international investors and diplomats to assure them that he would continue to promote an open, inclusive society and economy.
As Jakarta governor, he has continued to improve public transportation by expanding the busway system as well as the second phase of the mass rapid transit system.
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