Australian businesses see rapid recovery as consumers ache to spend

[SYDNEY] Australian businesses reported a sharp rebound in sales and profits in October as most coronavirus restrictions were lifted, while newly liberated consumers looked to spend big on travel and entertainment in coming weeks.

The upbeat reports released on Tuesday reinforced expectations for a rapid economic recovery from a lockdown-induced contraction.

On the business side, National Australia Bank's long-running survey found sales, profits and employment all picked up in October, led by recreation, construction, manufacturing and mining.

The survey's main measure of business conditions rose 6 points to an above-average +11 in October, while confidence climbed 11 points to +21.

The survey also showed healthy demand combined with supply chain disruptions and border restrictions had pushed input cost inflation to the highest level in a decade.

A separate report from Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) revealed households were aching to spend freely on a slew of services and goods.

Using the bank's electronic card sales data combined with Google search terms, CBA estimated spending intentions for 12 sectors ranging from homes to education to utilities.

Spending intentions for travel alone surged 53 per cent in October from September, when Sydney and Melbourne were still shut in, while entertainment jumped 15 per cent and retail 9 per cent.

Combining all the data in a household spending intentions (HSI) index produced an overall reading of 108.0 for October, up 6.6 per cent for the month and 4.4 per cent on October last year.

CBA chief economist Stephen Halmarick said the index had a close correlation to household spending in the official gross domestic product figures, and was far more timely.

The GDP report for the September quarter, for instance, will not be released until early November, but the HSI already clearly confirms spending contracted sharply.

"What we are really interested in is not just what people are spending money on, but what they intend to spend money on," said Halmarick, who hopes the HSI will become a useful predictor of economic trends.

REUTERS