Baltic Exchange Shipping Insights

Capesize

The market strengthened convincingly over the course of the week, with momentum building steadily from an already active start in the Pacific following the UK bank holiday. Early support came primarily from robust Pacific activity, where the consistent presence of all three major miners on C5, coupled with a healthy flow of East Australian coal tender cargoes, drove rates progressively higher and underpinned increasingly bullish sentiment. This strength gradually filtered into the Atlantic basin, where activity and confidence improved as the week progressed. Firmer transatlantic rounds and tightening tonnage lists helped support. Midweek, both basins experienced a notable acceleration in positive sentiment, with the market appearing increasingly supply-driven as vessel availability tightened. C5 pushed firmly into the mid $15s and beyond, while C3 gained traction into the upper $36s amid improving bid levels and growing resistance from owners. However, by the latter part of the week, momentum began to moderate in both basins as C5 slipped back closer to $15, while ballaster availability lengthened slightly and fixing activity became more selective, leading to some softer C3 fixtures for later dates. Nevertheless, North transatlantic activity remained robust overall and stronger numbers were also seen, helped by fronthaul demand. Overall, the BCI 182 5TC rose from $42,649 on Tuesday to finish the week at $44,941, after peaking at $46,610 on Thursday.

Panamax

This week saw steadily strengthening Panamax market sentiment across both basins, driven by tightening tonnage and improving cargo volumes. Early in the week rates surged, led by gains in both Atlantic and Pacific routes as stronger grain and mineral activity supported higher fixtures, particularly on fronthaul trades. Although midweek trading in the Atlantic was quieter, sentiment remained firm with thinning vessel lists and owners increasing offers amid improved fronthaul fixing volumes. In Asia, sustained Australian mineral exports and active Indonesian demand, coupled with a limited supply of modern tonnage, kept rates on an upward trend. By Thursday, tightening vessel supply and consistent cargo flow pushed the market higher still with both basins reporting firmer fixtures and continued upward momentum. The P5TC index posted steady gains throughout the week, rising from $18,490 on Tuesday to close at $20,099 by Friday.

Ultramax/Supramax

Despite the short week for some following the long weekend, the sector generally remained upbeat. The Atlantic saw a reasonable amount of activity and owners’ expectations cautiously rose. A 61,000-dwt fixing delivery US East Coast for a trip to Finland with coal at $26,000. The Continent saw continued demand for the scrap sector, an Ultramax fixing around $20,000 from the lower Baltic to the East Mediterranean. Despite limited activity being reported, brokers said healthy numbers were still being seen from the South Atlantic and Ultramax size fixing at around $17,000 plus $700,000 ballast bonus. The Asian arena remained steady, although some felt fresh enquiry further north was lacking. A fixing delivery Busan via the NoPac redelivery Chittagong at under $17,000. Demand remained further south, a 55,000-dwt fixing delivery passing Penang trip via Indonesia redelivery Thailand at $18,250. It was rather a positional affair from the Indian Ocean, a 63,000-dwt fixing delivery Kandla redelivery China in salt at $16,500.

Handysize

The market overall stayed largely flat to modestly firm, with most of the movement driven by positional factors rather than a significant rise in demand. In the Continent and Mediterranean, things remained very subdued, with limited inquiries and a general quietness setting the tone. On the other hand, the US Gulf and South Atlantic experienced a touch more activity, with fresh interest and marginally improved movement. However, despite these signs, the uptick was not sufficient to clear the surplus tonnage, resulting in only gradual improvements in rates. Notable fixtures include a 40,000-dwt open Lagos 2/5 May that fixed a trip delivery Vila Do Conde to Norway, carrying alumina, at $22,000, and a 37,000-dwt open Galveston 5/10 May that fixed for a trip delivery Mobile to the UK with wood pellets at $14,000. Over in Asia, the market was flat as well, partly due to regional holidays. The tonnage list grew a bit longer, but there was not much change in the cargo book, a 37,000-dwt fixed for multiple trips from CJK at $17,500.

Clean

LR2

The TC1 75kt MEG/Japan index remained flat around the WS550 mark this week.

A voyage west also saw the TC20 90kt MEG/UK-Continent index also continued around the $10.8-10.9 million level.

The TC15 80kt Mediterranean/East index shed another $870,000 to $10.07 million this week with the corresponding TCE down to $93,600/day on Baltic description round trip.

LR1

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Baltic Exchange Shipping Insights

The TC5 55kt MEG/Japan index has been assessed down a modest 12.5 points this week to WS603.

A run west on TC8 65kt MEG/UK-Continent ended the week with the index $135,000 lower to $8.47 million.

MR

The TC17 35kt MEG/East Africa index continued along its current path this week at around WS735-737, this would generate $91,300/day on Baltic description round trip TCE.

On the UK-Continent, MR freight levels came down again this week. The TC2 37kt ARA/US-Atlantic Coast index was assessed 17.5 points lower than last week at WS213 where it looks to have bottomed for the moment, with the Baltic TCE for the round trip now at $15,600/day.

In the US Gulf, MR freight levels crashed this week. The TC14 38kt US Gulf/UK-Continent run is currently publishing at WS243.57, down 182 points from where it started the week, the Baltic round trip TCE for the run is now at $21,400/day down 60%. The Caribbean voyage on TC21, 38kt US-Gulf/Caribbean mirrored this direction and currently sits at $782,000 with the corresponding TCE now at $19,200/day (-$38,200) on Baltic description. 

The MR Atlantic Triangulation Basket TCE went from $75,366/day to $40,185/day.

Handymax

In the Mediterranean, Handymax rates were cut down again this week with the TC6, 30kt Cross-Mediterranean index dropping another 47 points to WS400, translating to $75,100/day on Baltic TCE round trip. 

The TC23 30kt Cross UK-Continent route also lost more value this week, it came down 81 points to WS381 which generates $67,400/day on Baltic TCE round trip.

VLCC

The situation in the Middle East continues to be uncertain as far as shipping oil is concerned. The Baltic panellists now assess the rate for the TD3C route (270,000mt Middle East Gulf to China) 53 points more than last Friday at WS458.75, which corresponds to a daily round-trip TCE of $462,102 for the standard Baltic VLCC. TD34 (Gulf of Oman/China) was assessed on Thursday at WS139, 10 points lower than last Friday.

In the Atlantic market, the rate for the 260,000mt West Africa to China route (TD15) firmed by 15 points this week, at just over WS147.5 giving a round voyage TCE of a little over $115,300, while the US Gulf to China route (TD22) has risen in the past 7 days by $1,550,000 to a little over $17,260,000 which gives a daily round trip TCE of over $105,500.

Suezmax

In the Suezmax sector the rate for the 130,000mt Nigeria/UK Continent voyage (TD20) trip regained about 3 points to the WS195 level which translates into a daily round-trip TCE of about $80,600. The TD27 route (Guyana to UK Continent basis 130,000mt) conversely lost 2 points to the WS197.5 mark, which gives a daily round trip TCE of about $83,400. The Baltic route of 145,000mt USG/UKC (TD33), shed about 20 points to WS175.

In the Black Sea, rates for the TD6 route of 135,000mt CPC/Augusta gained a further 2.5 points to just break through the WS260 level meaning a daily TCE of almost $154,000.

Aframax

In the North Sea, the rate for 80,000mt Cross-UK Continent route (TD7) is now 34 points lower than a week ago at the WS200-202.5 level, giving a daily round-trip TCE of about $97,500 basis Hound Point to Wilhelmshaven.

In the Mediterranean, the rate for 80,000mt Cross-Mediterranean (TD19) fell about 22 points this week to WS266 (basis Ceyhan to Lavera, that shows a daily round trip TCE of just over $83,800).

Across the Atlantic, the market started to crumble with ballasters from Europe entering the fray, although the rates and corresponding TCEs remain high. The 70,000mt East Coast Mexico/US Gulf route (TD26) fell over 157.5 points to a fraction under WS399 giving a daily round-trip TCE of almost $117,500. The 70,000mt Covenas/US Gulf route (TD9) has lost over 165 points to close to WS377 (translating into a daily round trip TCE of $99,650).

The rate for the transatlantic route of 70,000mt US Gulf/UK Continent (TD25) has fallen back almost 133 points to WS292 which gives a round trip TCE basis Houston/Rotterdam of about $68,600/day.

On the Vancouver exports, the rate for TD28 (80,000mt crude oil Vancouver to China) has shed another $415,000 to $4,855,000 (giving a round trip TCE of just over $84,350/day) while TD29 (80,000mt crude oil Vancouver to Pacific Area Lightering point off the USWC) has fallen 12 points to WS365.

LNG

The LNG spot market experienced a quiet week, with rates easing modestly across all major routes amid subdued fixing activity. While underlying vessel availability remains relatively tight, the lack of fresh cargo demand kept downward pressure on earnings across both basins.

On the BLNG1 Australia–Japan route, 174,000 cbm vessels declined by $3,400 week-on-week to settle at $67,100/day. The Pacific market remained muted, with minimal activity and little momentum to support rates.

The BLNG2 US Gulf–Continent route edged lower, with earnings slipping $1,000 to $94,500/day. Despite a relatively balanced Atlantic position list, the absence of meaningful fixing activity restricted any upside.

Similarly, the BLNG3 US Gulf–Japan route softened by $2,000 to $105,000/day, as weaker long-haul demand and subdued enquiry weighed on sentiment.

In the time charter market, sentiment was mixed. The six-month rate declined by $1,200 to $92,100/day, reflecting the softer spot environment. In contrast, the one-year term increased by $4,367 to $86,700/day, while the three-year period rose $5,000 to $85,000/day, indicating continued confidence in the longer-term outlook despite near-term softness.

LPG

The LPG market continued its upward momentum this week, driven by a tightening tonnage list and sustained chartering interest. Limited prompt vessel availability in the Atlantic, continued to lend firm support to rates, pushing all routes higher.

On the BLPG1 Ras Tanura–Chiba route, rates increased $14.00 week-on-week to $203.50, with TCE earnings rising $14,925 to $192,282/day.

BLPG2 Houston–Flushing strengthened further, rising $20.25 to $157.00, with TCE earnings up $29,085 to $177,094/day, in line with the broader firming trend led by BLPG3.

Similarly, the BLPG3 Houston–Chiba route recorded the strongest gains of the week, surging $37.92 to $291.50, with TCE returns up $29,542 to $174,790/day. The combination of limited vessel supply and firm long-haul demand drove rates to fresh highs, maintaining the market’s bullish trajectory.

Container

Container freight markets were mixed but broadly stable over the past week, with a slight firming trend overall and continued divergence across major trades. Transpacific routes remained the main source of strength, with rates generally moving higher on Asia–US lanes supported by carrier pricing discipline and the introduction of fuel‑related and peak season surcharges, while Asia–Europe conditions were comparatively softer, with rates largely flat to slightly weaker amid subdued demand and ongoing difficulty in sustaining higher pricing. From a fundamentals perspective, the market continues to be defined by excess capacity and cautious demand, with carriers actively managing supply through blank sailings and network adjustments, while elevated bunker costs and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are maintaining underlying cost pressure and volatility. Looking ahead, the near‑term outlook remains for broadly stable rates with a modestly firmer tone, led by relative resilience on transpacific routes, while Asia–Europe is expected to remain range‑bound unless demand improves.

This report is produced by the Baltic Exchange. (All currencies are in US dollars.)

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