Baltic Exchange Shipping Insights

Capesize

The market strengthened over the course of the week, with sentiment increasingly underpinned by robust Pacific activity and a late-week improvement in Atlantic fundamentals.

Despite a fragmented trading environment caused by public holidays in both the UK and Singapore, the market demonstrated resilience, with the BCI 182 5TC climbing above the $50,000 mark by Thursday.

The Pacific remained the primary driver throughout, supported by consistent participation from all three major miners, a healthy flow of operator-controlled cargoes, and additional tender activity.

Strong fixing volumes helped absorb available tonnage and steadily lifted C5 rates, with sentiment improving as the week progressed and fixtures gradually pushed into the high $16.00s and, in some cases, above $17.00.

However, as the week drew to a close, conditions in the Pacific eased marginally despite continued activity, with rates slipping back from Thursday’s highs into the low to mid $16.00s.

While the Atlantic began the week in a relatively subdued state, momentum improved notably towards the latter stages. South Brazil and West Africa to China cargoes gradually strengthened, with C3 moving from the high $36.00s range towards the upper $37.00s and low $38.00s levels for index dates.

Transatlantic earnings improved on the back of a limited number of stronger fixtures, while fronthaul activity remained relatively quiet.

Panamax-Kamsarmax

The Panamax market saw a gradual improvement through the week, though conditions diverged regionally. The Atlantic lacked clear momentum, with supply steadily building and activity failing to absorb the growing tonnage list.

While some fronthaul interest persisted, it was largely forward-focused, leaving prompt vessels under pressure and forcing owners to soften rate expectations.

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In contrast, the Pacific remained firm and was the primary driver of gains. Strong export demand from Australia and Indonesia supported increased competition for prompt tonnage, with rates steadily firming, particularly on Australia round voyages.

Overall, the P5TC index rose from $20,318 on Tuesday to $21,086 by Friday, driven mainly by Pacific momentum, while period interest was also reported to have remained present throughout the week.

Ultramax/Supramax

The Supramax market ended the week with a familiar split between a firmer Atlantic and a softer Asia. The US Gulf remained the main source of support, with brokers reporting steady fresh cargo and better transatlantic demand, helping to keep sentiment positive and underpinning rate ideas.

The Continent-Mediterranean stayed balanced to slightly positive, though some felt the market may have reached a near-term ceiling, while the South Atlantic remained finely poised.

In contrast, Asia lost momentum as limited inquiry and holiday disruptions across the Indian Ocean and Singapore weighed on activity and sentiment.

Fixtures reflected this divergence, with stronger Atlantic numbers discussed, a 63,000-dwt fixing Newark to Thailand at $28,000, while Asian business remained more subdued with a 57,000-dwt fixed for a trip delivery Indonesia redelivery EC India at $23,750.

Overall, the 11TC average was relatively resilient despite midweek softness, finishing at $19,827, confirming an end-week tone of Atlantic strength offset by Asian weakness.

Handysize

The Handy market ended the week on a mixed but broadly steady footing, with regional trends continuing to shape sentiment.

The Continent and Mediterranean remained largely balanced, with rates holding close to previous levels, while the South Atlantic stayed under pressure amid limited fresh demand and a growing supply of prompt tonnage.

A 35,000-dwt vessel fixed for a trip from Skaw via the Continent to the Dakar-Abidjan range with grains at $12,000. By contrast, the US Gulf maintained a firmer tone throughout the week, supported by improving demand, particularly for larger sizes.

A 40,000-dwt vessel was reported fixed for a trip from Houston to the Inter-Caribbean at $23,000. Asia also remained resilient, underpinned by tighter vessel availability and a steady cargo flow.

A 40,000-dwt vessel fixed for a trip from Lanshan to the SE Asia with steels at $19,500.

Clean

LR2

The TC1 75kt MEG/Japan index remained stable this week around the WS525-530 mark. A voyage west also saw the TC20 90kt MEG/UK-Continent index also continued around the $10.25-10.3 million level.

The TC15 80kt Mediterranean/East index came down a further 21% this week to $5.95 million with the corresponding TCE dropping to $39,000/day on Baltic description round trip.

LR1

The TC5 55kt MEG/Japan index was also ultimately assessed 15 points lower this week to WS555. A run west on TC8 65kt MEG/UK-Continent saw the index $200,000 lighter at the end of week at $8.27 million.

MR

The TC17 35kt MEG/East Africa index stayed relatively flat this week, continuing at the WS725-730 level or $90,000/day on Baltic description round trip TCE.

On the UK-Continent, MR freight suffered from downward pressure again this week. The TC2 37kt ARA/US-Atlantic Coast index published 19 points down from last week at WS159, with the Baltic TCE for the round trip now at $7,400/day. 

In the US Gulf, MR freight levels managed to recover this week. The TC14 38kt US Gulf/UK-Continent ticked up 35 points to WS195, with the Baltic round trip TCE for the run up now to $16,000/day.

The Caribbean voyage on TC21, 38kt US-Gulf/Caribbean, also moved up 59% from last week to $807,000 with the corresponding TCE climbing by $18,000/day to its current level $22,800/day on Baltic description. 

The MR Atlantic Triangulation Basket TCE went from $22,116/day to $27,509/day.

Handymax

In the Mediterranean, Handymax rates took a 70-point hit this week with the TC6, 30kt Cross-Mediterranean index marked down to WS267, translating to $38,000/day on Baltic TCE round trip. 

The TC23 30kt Cross UK-Continent also dropped to WS291 this week (-23), still giving $42,000/day on Baltic TCE round trip.

VLCC

Sentiment in the VLCC market is softer this week. The Baltic panellists now assess the rate for the TD3C route (270,000mt Middle East Gulf to China) 5 points lower than last Friday at WS391.88, which corresponds to a daily round-trip TCE of $389,536 for the standard Baltic VLCC.

TD34 (Gulf of Oman/China) was assessed on Thursday at WS132.8, almost 3 points up on last Friday.

In the Atlantic market, the rate for the 260,000mt West Africa to China route (TD15) has been reduced by almost 6 points this week, at WS124, giving a round voyage TCE of about $91,300, while the US Gulf to China route (TD22) eased $85,000 to just above the $17,000,000 mark, which gives a daily round trip TCE of just over $105,000.

Suezmax

In the Suezmax sector, the rate for the 130,000mt Nigeria/UK Continent voyage (TD20) trip fell 15 points this week to WS160, which translates into a daily round trip TCE of $62,760.

The TD27 route (Guyana to UK Continent basis 130,000mt) lost about 12 points to just below WS169, giving a daily round trip TCE of about $69,100. The Baltic route of 145,000mt USG/UKC (TD33) is again weaker, losing 6 points to just below WS159.

In the Black Sea, rates for the TD6 route of 135,000mt CPC/Augusta slackened by 5 points to WS221.5, meaning a daily TCE of about $124,900.

Aframax

In the North Sea, the rate for 80,000mt Cross-UK Continent route (TD7) fell by 16 points to just below WS160, giving a daily round trip TCE of about $54,200 basis Hound Point to Wilhelmshaven.

In the Mediterranean, the rate for 80,000mt Cross-Mediterranean (TD19) remained flat at the WS173.5-175 mark (basis Ceyhan to Lavera, this shows a daily round trip TCE of just over $37,100).

Across the Atlantic, the market continued to bump downwards. The 70,000mt East Coast Mexico/US Gulf route (TD26) fell again, losing 32 points to WS212.78 giving a daily round trip TCE of about $43,500.

The 70,000mt Covenas/US Gulf route (TD9) also lost 32 points to WS207.19 (translating into a daily round trip TCE of $41,599).

The rate for the transatlantic route of 70,000mt US Gulf/UK Continent (TD25) has fallen by nearly 33 points this week to WS192.5, which gives a round trip TCE basis Houston/Rotterdam of about $36,000/day.

On the Vancouver exports, the rate for TD28 (80,000mt crude oil Vancouver to China) has tumbled by $450,000 this week to $3,670,000 (giving a round trip TCE of about $56,800/day), while TD29 (80,000mt crude oil Vancouver to Pacific Area Lightering point off the USWC) shrank by 23 points to WS309.

LNG

The LNG spot market was relatively steady this week, with the Atlantic market holding firm while the Pacific experienced some tightening in vessel availability.

Limited prompt tonnage in the East provided support to rates, although overall activity levels remained moderate across both basins.

On the BLNG1 Australia–Japan route, 174,000 cbm vessels gained $6,400 week-on-week to settle at $76,400/day, as tightening Pacific tonnage and steady inquiry helped lift sentiment through the week.

The BLNG2 US Gulf-Continent route remained broadly stable, edging up $400 to $106,000/day. The Atlantic market continued to see balanced fundamentals, with stable cargo flow and limited vessel availability keeping rates supported.

Meanwhile, the BLNG3 US Gulf-Japan route eased marginally by $600 to $120,000/day. Despite softer long-haul sentiment toward the end of the week, the market remained relatively firm overall.

In the time charter market, the 6-month rate increased $1,200 to $98,100/day, reflecting continued support in the shorter-term market. Further out the curve, sentiment softened slightly, with the 1-year term falling $2,567 to $80,300/day, while the 3-year period declined $5,000 to $78,000/day.

LPG

The LPG market showed signs of reaching a ceiling this week, with rates coming under pressure towards the end of the period. A weakening arbitrage and the emergence of relets weighed on sentiment, while previously tight conditions began to ease, leading to a notable correction across all routes.

The BLPG1 Ras Tanura–Chiba route settled at $203.88 and TCE earnings at $193,699/day.

The BLPG2 Houston-Flushing route saw a sharp correction, dropping $15.50 to $162.75, while TCE earnings fell $20,357 to $189,953/day. The Atlantic market weakened as relets entered the market.

Similarly, the BLPG3 Houston-Chiba route experienced the largest decline, falling $30.83 to $292.50, with TCE returns down $22,786 to $176,799/day. Long-haul demand softened notably, with the combination of a weakening arb and increased vessel availability driving rates lower towards the end of the week.

Container

The past week saw container rates largely slow down from their recent rapid increase of rates. In the cross Pacific trade rotation, we witnessed FBX01 (China/East Asia-US West Coast) increase by $72 week-on-week, ending the week at $3,225, this route is $409 above the start of the month and up even more since April.

The FBX03 (China/East Asia-US East Coast) is up by just $47 to $5,082 this week, up $742 from the start of May. Meanwhile, rates into Europe tracked by, FBX11 (China/East Asia-North Europe) increased by just $54 since last week, settling at $2,968, but up $367 since the start of the month.

Into the Mediterranean we saw rates actually drop FBX13 (China/East Asia-Mediterranean) decreased by $140 from last Friday, settling the week at $4,364, but still up $784 since the start of the month.

This report is produced by the Baltic Exchange. (All currencies are in US dollars.)

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