President Joe Biden told donors he thinks the US will avoid a potential recession that economists and banks have long been predicting.

Economists have been saying a recession is coming next month, Biden said on Tuesday (Jun 27) night during a fundraiser in the Maryland suburbs outside Washington.

“It’s been coming for 11 months, well guess what? I don’t think it is going to come,” he added, citing a still strong labour market and his efforts to tamp down on inflation.

Recent data on housing, manufacturing and consumer confidence have beaten expectations, painting a picture of a resilient economy. Reports on Tuesday showed new home purchases climbing to the fastest annual rate in more than a year, durable goods orders topping estimates and consumer confidence reaching the highest level since the start of 2022.

While the data does not discount the possibility of a recession in the coming year, it does give reason to believe a downturn is not imminent or certain.

According to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists, the economy is expected to narrowly dodge a recession this year but underlying inflation will be faster than previously thought. 

GET BT IN YOUR INBOX DAILY

Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox.

Sign UpVIEW ALL

Biden’s remarks at the home of Choice Hotels International chairman Stewart Bainum, a long-time Democratic donor who served as a Maryland state lawmaker in the 1970s and 80s, came a day before the president is scheduled to travel to Chicago. 

At Chicago’s Old Post Office on Wednesday, Biden will deliver what the White House has called a “cornerstone” address on his economic policy, “Bidenomics”. The White House is seeking to improve perceptions about his job performance before the 2024 election gets underway.

Earlier this week, Biden announced plans to distribute more than US$40 billion in funding for high-speed Internet infrastructure in the coming weeks, presenting it as an example of how his administration is trying to help all Americans, even those who did not vote for him.

Polls have shown that voters broadly see Biden’s job performance on the economy as poor, despite low unemployment and the passage of pandemic relief, infrastructure, and climate spending legislation.

If a recession is going to come in the next 12 months, Biden should hope it begins sooner rather than later. Two-term presidents generally get any recessions out of the way early, while one-term presidents have had to contend with bad economic news while voters are heading to the polls. BLOOMBERG