China economists see weak demand despite expected interest rate cuts

CHINA economists are increasingly pessimistic about the prospects of domestic demand in the country as they lower 2024 forecasts on inflation, investment and consumption despite expected rate cuts.

Retail sales, a key gauge of consumer spending, are now forecast to rise just 4 per cent this year, down from a previous projection of 4.5 per cent, as expectations for growth in the two remaining quarters are slashed, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month. That would be the slowest increase barring pandemic years since government data became available in 1999.

The prediction of annual growth in fixed-asset investment, which includes investment in infrastructure and manufacturing, fell to 4.2 per cent from 4.4 per cent in last month’s poll.

Economists also trimmed their inflation forecasts in the face of more bearish views on consumption and investment, projecting consumer prices to rise 0.5 per cent this year – down from an earlier estimate of 0.6 per cent – and postponing an expected turnaround in industrial deflation by a quarter to early next year.

The downgrades come even though Chinese policymakers are seen to be cutting rates earlier than previously thought. That underscores the challenges Beijing faces in stimulating the economy to achieve its growth target of around 5 per cent this year.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) lowered a key policy rate last month after official data showed economic growth slowed to the worst pace in five quarters in the April to June period. Still, credit demand has remained sluggish as a persisting property slump, fierce price competition and a gloomy job market hold businesses and consumers back from spending.

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“Recent monthly indicators point to a weak growth momentum,” said Arjen van Dijkhuizen, senior economist at ABN Amro Bank. “We see further room for piecemeal monetary easing, with inflation still very subdued, and targeted fiscal support to break the negative feedback loop in real estate.”

The central bank may trim the seven-day reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points during the October to December period to 1.6 per cent, and follow up with another reduction of the same magnitude in the second quarter of 2025, economists in the Bloomberg survey predict.

They had previously forecast a 10-basis-point cut only in the first quarter of next year before the rate is lowered again during the April to June period in 2026. The rising likelihood of the US Federal Reserve lowering interest rates is fanning expectations China’s monetary authorities will have more leeway to loosen policies.

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The short-term rate has been attracting rising investor attention since PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng signalled in June that the central bank is shifting to that tool to guide markets after years of using the medium-term lending facility (MLF). The one-year MLF rate is expected to decline at the same rhythm and pace as the seven-day cost, according to the economists.

Other highlights of the survey:

• The median forecasts for year-on-year GDP growth in the third and fourth quarters are both lowered to 4.6 per cent from 4.7 per cent in the previous poll.
• Export expansion is seen at 5.5 per cent in the current quarter, versus 6 per cent previously, before decelerating to 4.4 per cent in the October to December period.
• Import growth outlook is boosted to 4 per cent for the current quarter from 3.8 per cent previously, and to 2.8 per cent for the final three months of the year from 2.4 per cent.
• Economists maintain the view the PBOC will probably lower its reserve requirement ratio in the current quarter and the first three months of 2025, each time by 25 basis points.
• Chinese lenders may cut the five-year loan prime rate, a reference to mortgage costs, by 10 basis points in the fourth quarter, instead of five basis points in last month’s survey.