Chinese economic agency plans briefing as investors eye stimulus

CHINA’S top economic planner will hold a press briefing on Tuesday (Oct 8) to discuss a package of policies aimed at boosting economic growth, as investors look for more stimulus measures from President Xi Jinping’s government.

The briefing will include five senior officials from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), including Chairman Zheng Shanjie, a notice from the Chinese government said on Sunday.

Economists and traders are closely watching for additional policy measures after China’s top leaders signalled a desire to draw a line under the nation’s growth slowdown.

Just before a week-long holiday in China, the government unleashed a slew of stimulus measures, including interest rate cuts, more liquidity to promote bank lending and a pledge of as much as US$340 billion to support the stock market. 

Chinese shares have soared since late-September as the policy support reinvigorated investor confidence, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gaining more than 30 per cent in the past month.

But concerns are growing over whether the rally can be sustained, given China has seen several false dawns before, including a rally in February that completely unwound.

While the NDRC notice did not provide details on the briefing, expectations are rising among analysts for Beijing to expand public spending as part of its stimulus package.

A prominent Chinese economist recently said that the country has room to ramp up fiscal support by issuing as much as 10 trillion yuan (S$1.9 trillion) in special debt. 

The NDRC may unveil the first batch of an expected two trillion yuan fiscal package at the briefing, Morgan Stanley analysts said. The measure could include support for local government financing, infrastructure investment and a modest consumption boost, they said.

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Citigroup expects the fiscal package to be about three trillion yuan. Head of emerging markets economics Johanna Chua noted that it is not clear if all of that will be announced at the NDRC briefing, but the amount will be used to support local government spending, welfare and consumption, and bank recapitalisation. 

“The challenges in China are very large, so any little bit thing helps,” she said on Monday.

“You just need a little bit more of a pivot in terms of expectation about what the government can do to help support you, and that might at least help change sentiment.” BLOOMBERG