Chinese export boom can’t stop economy’s slowdown
[BEIJING] China’s economy probably grew at the slowest in a year during the third quarter despite a boom in exports, in a disconnect the Communist Party may move to rectify at a key meeting in the coming week.
As trade tensions escalate with the US, weakness in investment, industrial output and retail sales is undermining momentum from record sales abroad. Data due on Monday (Oct 20) from China’s National Bureau of Statistics will show gross domestic product rose 4.7 per cent in the quarter from a year earlier, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey, down from 5.2 per cent in the prior three months.
Retail sales are forecast to have expanded 3 per cent in September and industrial output to have climbed by 5 per cent – the weakest outcomes this year for both.
Meanwhile, fixed-asset investment is forecast to have slowed again in the first nine months, to be unchanged from a year earlier. It’s been plunging since May despite a massive expansion in government borrowing meant to support the spending power of local authorities. Public spending on infrastructure hasn’t been enough, though, to make up for a slump in housing investment and the slowdown in money going to manufacturing.
Foreign firms have also been pulling back on outlays, with inbound new foreign direct investment down almost 13 per cent in the first eight months, putting China on track for three straight years of declines. One bright spot is foreign demand, with the goods trade balance so far this year hitting a record US$875 billion, according to the latest figures.
The economic fragility sets the tone for the upcoming gathering of party officials at the so-called fourth plenum in Beijing. The huddle will provide clues on their priorities for 2026-2030, as governments and investors around the world call for a rebalancing of China’s economy toward domestic consumption.
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which just kept its prediction for China’s 2025 growth at 4.8 per cent, expects a slowdown next year to 4.2 per cent – an outlook in line with the median forecasts of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The fund warned that “China’s prospects remain weak”, saying “real estate investment continues to shrink while the economy teeters on the verge of a debt-deflation cycle”.
“Rebalancing toward household consumption – including through fiscal measures with a greater focus on social spending and the property sector – and scaling back industrial policies would reduce external surpluses and alleviate domestic deflationary pressures,” the IMF officials said in their global economic outlook.
Meanwhile, investors will be watching for any developments on rare earths after China unveiled broad new curbs on its exports of such materials. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he’ll meet with his Chinese counterpart, Vice-Premier He Lifeng, this week.
Elsewhere, inflation data from Japan to the UK, purchasing manager indices from major economies, and the first summary of a meeting by Swiss central bank officials will be among the highlights.
US and Canada
After being delayed by the US government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release of the September consumer price index on Friday. The data, originally slated for Oct 15, will give Federal Reserve officials a critical piece of information on inflation ahead of their policy meeting the following week.
Economists in a Bloomberg survey forecast the core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes food and fuel for a better snapshot of underlying inflation, to have climbed 0.3 per cent for a third straight month as higher import duties continue to gradually filter through to consumers. The projected monthly gain will keep the annual core CPI at 3.1 per cent.
While most official economic data releases have been delayed, BLS staff were called in despite the shutdown to prepare the September CPI report, which informs next year’s cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security recipients.
Although inflation is stuck above their goal, Fed officials are expected to announce their second rate cut of the year following a two-day meeting on Oct 28 to 29 because of the fragile labour market.
Among private-sector economic data on the agenda, a National Association of Realtors report on Thursday will probably show contract closings on purchases of previously owned homes stayed tepid in September. An S&P Global PMI release on Friday is projected to illustrate modest growth in manufacturing and services activity.
Asia
Apart from the busy week in China, Japan reports national CPI figures on Friday expected to show that consumer inflation remained well above the Bank of Japan’s target in September, while purchasing manager indices the same day may show manufacturing activity shrinking for a fourth straight month, even as services marked a full year of expansion.
India’s September purchasing manager index (PMI) figures will likely show manufacturing activity remains robust. New Zealand reports quarterly inflation data, while Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong release September CPI.
Monthly trade data are due from New Zealand, Thailand and Japan, while South Korea will release 20-day trade statistics for October.
On the policy front, China is likely to hold its one and five-year loan prime rates steady on Monday. Bank Indonesia will mull another cut to its benchmark rate on Wednesday as it weighs benign inflation against the weakening rupiah.
A day later, the Bank of Korea is expected to hold its base rate steady at 2.5 per cent while possibly foreshadowing a cut in November as inflation stays subdued and economic growth cools. Uzbekistan sets rate policy on Thursday.
Europe, Middle East and Africa
The week’s highlight may be the initial reading of October PMIs across western Europe.
These will reveal how manufacturing and services companies in Germany, France and the UK assessed the activity at the start of the fourth quarter, pointing to any momentum – or lack thereof – at a time when US President Donald Trump’s tariffs are squeezing exports to the US.
In terms of hard data, Britain may draw the most attention. Public finance numbers on Tuesday will inform Chancellor Rachel Reeves as she prepares for a fraught budget in November.
Inflation the following day will be crucial both for Reeve’s plans and the Bank of England, which is inching towards further rate cuts while nervously monitoring still-strong price pressures. The data are likely to show acceleration to 4 per cent, the fastest in one-and-a-half years.
In the eurozone, several European Central Bank speakers will deliver remarks before a pre-decision quiet period kicks in on Thursday. Among them will be Executive Board members Isabel Schnabel and Philip Lane on Monday, and President Christine Lagarde on Wednesday.
Speaking on CBS’ Face the Nation on Sunday, Lagarde said that “we’re yet to feel the pain” of the fallout of higher US tariffs on the global economy. At the moment, companies in the US and Europe are absorbing around two-thirds of the effects by squeezing their margins”.
But this can’t last forever “and when they don’t because it’s becoming too tight, then it’ll be on the consumer”, she said. “So, it’s a question of time.”
Meanwhile, France’s ongoing struggles to pass a budget are likely to continue after Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu survived two no-confidence votes in the past week. Political strife could yet force the collapse of his government.
The situtation was exacerbated by Friday night’s unscheduled move by S&P Global Ratings to downgrade the country. The move means France has lost its double-A rating at two of the three major credit assessors in little more than a month, potentially forcing some funds with ultra-strict investment criteria to sell the country’s bonds.
An update at Moody’s Ratings is due at the end of the coming week, though the firm currently has a stable outlook on the country.
Belgium is also on the calendar for a possible review from S&P Global Ratings, whose view on its credit score is already skewed negative.
In Switzerland on Tuesday, September export numbers will offer a glimpse into the country’s trade position at the end of a quarter when it got slapped with the highest US import tariffs of any advanced economy. The government cited those levies in cutting its growth forecast for next year.
Thursday will be a watershed moment for the Swiss National Bank with the release of its first-ever summary of a rate meeting discussion, in an attempt to emulate the sort of transparency practised by the Fed.
Turning south, data on Wednesday will likely show South African inflation ticked up to 3.4 per cent in September from 3.3 per cent. That may again persuade policymakers to hold rates steady for a second consecutive meeting next month as they defend the South African Reserve Bank’s stricter 3 per cent goal for price growth, which they signalled in July is their preferred level.
A day later, the central bank will publish its semi-annual monetary policy review and Governor Lesetja Kganyago will offer more insights.
Some monetary decisions are scheduled around the region:
- On Tuesday, the National Bank of Hungary is set to keep its rate on hold at 6.5 per cent, having rebuffed government calls for easing.
- Turkey’s central bank is likely to lower rates again on Thursday – by 100 basis points to 39.5 per cent, according to a Bloomberg survey. Still, some in the poll expect a hold after price growth unexpectedly picked up in September to 33.3 per cent year-on-year.
- The Bank of Russia will announce its latest rate decision on Friday, after cuts at the past three meetings brought the benchmark to 17 per cent. Governor Elvira Nabiullina has warned that the widening federal budget deficit, driven by spending on the war in Ukraine, may limit room for further cuts.
Latin America
In a light week, Mexico may face a second straight month of negative GDP-proxy prints for August, due largely to more restricted public spending and Trump’s trade policies.
In similar vein, August data from Argentina may show activity extending a slump as President Javier Milei’s shock therapy weighs on the economy.
Also due from Argentina is Torcuato Di Tella University’s government confidence index, which is fresh off a tumble and may have taken another leg down amid a sell-off of the peso and local assets. Much is riding on how Milei fares in the Oct 26 midterm elections.
Providing regional contrast material, Colombia’s August GDP-proxy report comes on the heels of July data that showed growth got off to a blistering start in the second half, in line with central bank forecasts.
Mid-month inflation reports from Brazil and Mexico are likely to show still-simmering price pressures.
Sticky and elevated core readings are likely to keep Brazil’s central bank on hold at 15 per cent into 2026, though readings in Mexico are very unlikely to see Banxico pause its easing cycle after 10 straight rate cuts. BLOOMBERG
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