Chinese tourists pull back on overseas trips amid economic gloom

[BEIJING] Chinese tourists are expected to make fewer overseas trips in the second half of the year than previously forecast, as a gloomy economic outlook weighs on consumer sentiment.

Marketing and travel data firm China Trading Desk has lowered its 2026 forecast to about 179 million trips and about US$258 billion in destination spending.

While still representing record volume that surpasses pre-pandemic levels, the figures mark a near 3 per cent drop from previous estimates in June. 

“Chinese consumers haven’t stopped wanting to travel, but they are becoming more selective about when a trip is worth taking,” said Subramania Bhatt, head of China Trading Desk.

“Those who do travel are broadly maintaining their budgets; the weakness is in the number of trips. That points to a consumer who is cautious rather than absent.”

Outbound travel has softened as China’s economic woes, sparked by a property slump, make consumers cautious about discretionary spending. Disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict have also curbed long-haul travel.

In 2019, Chinese travellers took about 175 million outbound trips, including to Greater China destinations, and spent about US$255 billion. 

Geopolitical tensions and safety concerns are also reshaping regional travel. Chinese airlines have pulled back capacity to Japan following diplomatic friction over Taiwan.

Visitors to Japan, which had been one of the hottest destinations, will more than halve this year to 4.1 million. Meanwhile, Thailand has lost its lustre amid highly publicised scams and safety concerns.

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The shifting calculus favours closer locales, with Hong Kong and Macau topping the list, capturing nearly 40 per cent of the outbound market.

Yet, volume does not guarantee a windfall in tourism revenue. Hong Kong is projected to see 41 million trips this year, but the average spend is just US$310 per visitor.

By contrast, long-haul destinations such as France attract far fewer visitors – roughly 2.2 million trips this year, but capture an outsized US$7,622 per visitor from premium travellers insulated from mainland economic headwinds.

South Korea has emerged as the biggest winner from the redistribution. Benefiting from high shopping spending and a pivot away from Japan, it is expected to draw seven million visitors and nearly US$13 billion in spending – or US$1,815 per person. 

Despite the downgrade, year-over-year growth remains positive, with total trip volumes tracking 7 per cent above 2025 levels. And spending, though not keeping pace with volume, remains stable at US$1,437, down just US$2 from earlier estimates. 

“The recovery has slowed, but it hasn’t reversed,” said Bhatt. BLOOMBERG