Chinese trade volumes were on record path before Iran war shock
The trade boom has helped the economy overcome a domestic slowdown
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CHINA’S trade volumes soared above last year’s record-setting levels in the weeks before US and Israeli strikes hit Iran, as a widening military conflict risks causing a new disruption to global commerce.
More than 59 million containers moved through Chinese ports in the first nine weeks of the year, according to data released by the Ministry of Transport on Monday (Mar 2), an increase of more than 12 per cent from the same period last year.
The volume of freight leaving 20 major Chinese ports was also above its level in 2025, according to a research note from Goldman Sachs.
The jump before the recent holidays likely marked an extension of the strong export surge at the end of 2025, which took total outgoing shipments for the year to US$3.8 trillion. The trade boom helped the economy overcome a domestic slowdown as exporters found new markets to escape US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imports into the US.
But the escalating crisis around Iran poses new risks. If tensions spiral, China might find it hard to sustain the increase in shipments, with demand for its goods from the Middle East also likely to take a hit from the conflict.
Already, the world’s largest container carriers are rerouting ships to avoid the Persian Gulf, while major e-commerce platforms are warning of longer delivery times to the Middle East.
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Official Chinese trade data for the first two months will be released in a week, providing a clearer picture of how exports and imports have performed so far.
The private RatingDog purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which unlike official surveys tends to reflect activity in smaller and more export-oriented firms, showed that manufacturing activity improved in January. At the same time, export orders declined deeper into contraction during the first month of the year, according to the official manufacturing PMI.
China’s reduction in tax incentives for exporters from Apr 1 might be among factors prompting companies to rush goods out of the country, according to a leading solar panel manufacturer. The change is meant to promote industry consolidation and reassure trade partners concerned about surging Chinese exports.
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Longi Green Energy Technology’s vice-president, Zhang Haimeng, said in January that it might push manufacturers to ship orders ahead of the shift, followed by a sharp drop-off once the rebate is withdrawn. BLOOMBERG
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