Chinese visitors to Japan drop again as tensions keep simmering

[TOKYO] The decline in the number of Chinese visitors to Japan accelerated in January, fuelling the first monthly drop since Covid-19 restrictions were lifted, offering the clearest sign yet of economic fallout from tensions between the countries.

Arrivals from China shrank 61 per cent in January from a year earlier, compared with a 45 per cent decline in December, the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) said on Wednesday (Feb 18), citing a shift in the timing of the Chinese New Year holiday and warnings against travel to Japan. The fall dragged down the total number of inbound visitors by 4.9 per cent last month.

The slide was triggered by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments late last year that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could be considered an “existential threat”, a characterisation that could give Japan legal justification for deploying troops. Beijing subsequently cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, resulting in flight cancellations to March 2026.

The impact has rippled through Japan’s retail sector. Duty-free sales at Japan’s top department stores fell again in January, highlighting the prolonged pain for the industry.

Chinese tourists have been the backbone of Japan’s post-Covid-19 recovery, accounting for about a fifth of 9.6 trillion yen (S$79 billion) in tourism revenue in 2025. But the strained ties between the Asian neighbours have exposed Japan’s reliance on China as a vulnerability, intensifying its efforts to diversify its visitor base.

Visitors from Hong Kong also fell 18 per cent in January from a year earlier; arrivals from South Korea, Taiwan and the US increased, but not by enough to offset the fall, according to JNTO data.

Total foreign visitors to Japan topped 40 million for the first time last year, with an influx of people from other regions making up for the shortfall from China, the government said last month.

Still, Japan’s leading travel agency forecast that annual foreign tourist arrivals would decline this year for the first time since the country reopened its borders after the Covid-19 pandemic, projecting 41.5 million visitors.

The number of Japanese travelling abroad rose 18 per cent in Japan, as more people venture overseas following the deep decline during and after the pandemic.

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The government is targeting 60 million inbound visitors and 15 trillion yen in tourism revenue by 2030. It’s also seeking to lift per-capita spending by foreign tourists by 9 per cent by then and more than double the total number of overnight stays in regional areas to 130 million people. It also seeks to balance tourism growth with local communities’ concerns, curbing overtourism that has strained some residents’ quality of life. BLOOMBERG