Earthquake could cost Turkey up to US$84 billion: business group
TURKEY’s worst earthquake in almost a century has left a trail of destruction that could cost Ankara up to US$84.1 billion, a business group said, even as a government official put the figure at more than US$50 billion.
The combined death toll in Turkey and Syria from the 7.8-magnitude quake that struck last Monday (Feb 6) approached 36,000 and looked set to rise, as the focus of the response switched from rescuing survivors trapped under the rubble to providing shelter, food and psychosocial care.
A report published during the weekend by the Turkish Enterprise and Business Confederation put the cost of the damage at US$84.1 billion – with US$70.8 billion from the repair of thousands of homes, US$10.4 billion from the loss of national income, and US$2.9 billion from the loss of working days.
It said that the main costs would be rebuilding housing, transmission lines and infrastructure, and meeting the short-, medium- and long-term shelter needs of the hundreds of thousands left homeless.
President Tayyip Erdogan has said that the state will complete housing reconstruction within a year, and that the government was preparing a programme to “make the country stand up again”.
Some 13.4 million people – around 15 per cent of Turkey’s population – live in the 10 provinces hit by the quake. The provinces produce close to 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).
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The earthquake’s impact on GDP is unlikely to be as pronounced as after the 1999 earthquake in north-west Turkey, which struck the industrial heartland, said International Monetary Fund executive director Mahmoud Mohieldin on the sidelines of the Arab Fiscal Forum on Sunday.
He added that, after the initial impact over the next few months, public and private-sector investments in rebuilding could boost GDP growth in future.
Nonetheless, economists and officials estimated that the quake will cut economic growth by up to two percentage points this year.
The government forecast growth at 5 per cent in 2022, and had estimated growth at 5.5 per cent in 2023 before the quake.
Turkey is due to hold presidential and parliamentary elections this summer – the biggest challenge to Erdogan in his two decades in power.
A three-month state of emergency has been declared in the 10 provinces affected, and the central bank has postponed payments on some loans. The Treasury declared force majeure until the end of July, and has postponed tax payments for the region. REUTERS
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