ECB interest rates seen hitting peak of 3.25% before cut in July

THE European Central Bank’s (ECB) battle with inflation may end within half a year as policy makers begin to reverse rate hikes as soon as July, according to economists polled by Bloomberg.

The deposit rate will be raised to a peak of 3.25 per cent – from its current level of 2 per cent in three steps. The survey shows two half-point hikes at the February and March meetings, followed by a 25 basis-point increase in May or June. The median analyst prediction then envisages cutting the rate back to 3 per cent at the start of the third quarter.

Such a scenario would suggest a drastic turn of events that the ECB doesn’t envision. Most of its officials see rates remaining where they are after the so-called terminal rate is reached and none have called for rate cuts.

Investors see the deposit rate rising even more, according to the latest MLIV Pulse survey, with more than half in the poll predicting it will peak at 3.5 per cent or higher.

While eurozone price gains are moderating and consumers are less worried, policymakers have set their sights on bringing down underlying inflation, which hit a record last month as higher energy costs and wages feed through with a lag.

“As long as core inflation isn’t peaking, the change in headline inflation won’t make a change in our determination,” Austrian central bank chief Robert Holzmann said last week.

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The economists polled reckon the core price gauge – which excludes food, energy and other volatile items – will peak at an average of 5.1 per cent this quarter, before retreating to 3.5 per cent in the final three months of 2023.

Headline inflation is expected to ease 3.7 per cent from 8.5 per cent over that period.

Speaking about global central banks, Blackrock vice-chairman Philip Hildebrand said they’ll continue on their monetary-policy path in the coming months with little chance of rate cuts, even as price pressures ease.

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“Inflation is going to drop very very quickly,” Hildebrand, a former Swiss Nation Bank chief, told Bloomberg TV on Monday (Jan 16) from Davos. “I believe many of us will be surprised how quickly it will fall.”

Getting back to 2 per cent targets could prove tricky, though, he said.

“So the 9 per cent-4 per cent will be the easy part and then it’s going get very difficult to get inflation back to price stability,” Hildebrand said. “They’re going to be very careful, very focused on not losing the long-term inflation expectations anchor.” BLOOMBERG