EU cuts eurozone growth forecasts, revises up inflation outlook

THE European Commission cut its forecasts for economic growth in the eurozone for this year and next, and revised up its estimates for inflation on Thursday (Jul 14) largely due to the impact of the war in Ukraine.

In its quarterly forecasts, Brussels confirmed its more downbeat outlook, which it had already discussed with eurozone finance ministers on Monday .

The EU executive now predicts growth of 2.6 per cent this year for the 19-country currency bloc, slightly less than the 2.7 per cent it had forecast in May.

But next year, when the impact of the Ukraine war and of higher energy prices may be felt even more acutely, growth is now forecast to be 1.4 per cent, instead of the 2.3 per cent previously estimated.

For the wider 27-country European Union, the growth forecast was unchanged at 2.7 per cent this year, but revised down to 1.5 per cent in 2023 from 2.3 per cent.

In a major change, the Commission also raised its estimates for eurozone inflation, which this year is now expected to peak at 7.6 per cent before falling to 4.0 per cent in 2023.

In May, the Commission had forecast prices in the eurozone would rise 6.1 per cent this year and 2.7 per cent in 2023.

Brussels warned headline inflation could move even higher if gas prices soared due to Russia cutting off supplies, which might lead to a further downward revision of growth.

Risks to the outlook from a resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic could also not be ruled out.

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Despite these high risks, the Commission underlined that the eurozone was not expected to tip into a recession and the forecasts could also improve if recent declines of oil and commodity prices continued.

Thanks to a strong labour market with historically low unemployment rates, the Commission said private consumption could also prove more resilient to increasing prices if households were to use more of their accumulated savings.

Germany, the EU’s biggest economy, would see growth slow to 1.4 per cent this year and 1.3 per cent in 2023. The Commission had in May forecast expansions of respectively 1.6 per cent and 2.4 per cent.

France is expected to grow by 2.4 per cent this year, instead of the previously forecast 3.1 per cent. Next year, growth is estimated to slow further to 1.4 per cent, against 1.8 per cent predicted in May.

Among the 3 biggest economies of the bloc, Italy is the only one that is expected to grow this year by more than previously forecast. It is now seen to expand by 2.9 per cent, rather than the 2.4 per cent estimated in May.

However, the country is expected to experience a marked slowdown next year, when growth is predicted at 0.9 per cent, less than other large economies and down from a previous forecast of 1.9 per cent. REUTERS