Eurozone core inflation at record set to embolden ECB hawks

UNDERLYING inflation in the euro area hit a record in January, revised data showed, likely cementing the European Central Bank’s plan to raise interest rates by another half-point next month.

Core price gains reached 5.3 per cent – more than an initial reading of 5.2 per cent – Eurostat said on Thursday (Feb 23). Headline inflation, which includes food and power, also ticked up by 0.1 percentage point to 8.6 per cent after Germany’s figure turned out to be higher than the agency’s preliminary estimate.

The report underscores the enduring effects of Europe’s worst price shock in a generation after Russia’s war in Ukraine sent energy costs soaring. It will further embolden ECB hawks who are focused on underlying price pressures even as the overall gauge retreats. Surveys showing the continent’s economic resilience have similarly been interpreted as grounds to push on with hikes.

Officials led by President Christine Lagarde said at the their last meeting that they intend to lift the deposit rate to 3 per cent from 2.5 per cent when they gather next to set borrowing costs. With that move now seemingly locked in, even more attention will fall on the policy path beyond March 16.

Following tough remarks last week from Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, markets have boosted monetary-tightening bets and now see the peak of the ECB’s rate cycle at about 3.75 per cent.

Bank of France chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau sought to push back against such assumptions on Wednesday, saying hikes at all upcoming meetings aren’t guaranteed.

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Money-market wagers receded by 2 basis points on Thursday, envisaging the deposit rate will top out at 3.73 per cent by October. But they were little changed from before the inflation data. BLOOMBERG