Eurozone inflation rises just as ECB prepares to cut rates
EUROZONE inflation rose in May, data showed on Friday (May 31), in a sign the European Central Bank still faces a slow and uncertain journey to rein in prices.
The bigger-than-expected increase in inflation was unlikely to stop the ECB from lowering borrowing costs from a record high next week, but may cement the case for a pause in July and a slower pace of interest rate reductions in the coming months.
Consumer prices in the 20 countries that share the euro rose by 2.6 per cent year on year in May, inching away from the ECB’s 2 per cent goal after increases of 2.4 per cent in the previous two months, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate.
Economists polled by Reuters had anticipated a 2.5 per cent increase although an upside surprise was likely after German, French and Spanish readings earlier.
More significantly, a closely watched measure of underlying inflation that excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco came in at 2.9 per cent from 2.7 per cent in April.
Prices in the services sector, which some policymakers have singled out as especially relevant because they reflect domestic demand, rebounded to 4.1 per cent from 3.7 per cent.
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This was likely to mirror larger-than-expected increases in wages in the first quarter of the year, which have boosted consumers’ battered disposable income after years of below-inflation pay hikes.
The ECB’s biggest ever streak of rate hikes has helped bring down inflation from a whopping 10 per cent in late 2022 and stabilised consumer expectations but it has also choked off credit.
This meant that policymakers meeting next week were likely to stick to well-telegraphed plans to cut rates despite growing market doubts about a global narrative of falling inflation. REUTERS
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